Seehofer issues Merkel another ultimatum. So what?

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There is no doubt that Bavaria is struggling to accommodate the large numbers of refugees crossing the Austrian-German border every day. Bavaria’s infrastructure is already stretched, and, more importantly, the lack of co-ordination with the Austrians, the other German state governments, and the German federal government is nothing but baffling. There can also be no…

Polling accuracy: a Q&A with Kai Arzheimer and Jocelyn Evans | OUPblog

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Polling data is ubiquitous in today’s world, but it is is often difficult to easily understand the accuracy of polls. In a recent paper published in Political Analysis, Kai Arzheimer and Jocelyn Evans developed a new methodology for assessing the accuracy of polls in multiparty and multi-candidate elections.

Source: Polling accuracy: a Q&A with Kai Arzheimer and Jocelyn Evans | OUPblog

Oldies but goldies. For installing/updating the ado, checkout SSC. And here is even more background material on surveybias.

Scientific fraud, Soviet cosmonauts, fixed effects, comics: Links I liked

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Why Andre Gelman doesn’t use the terms “fixed” and “random”. If he doesn’t, we shouldn’t. Probably [contentcards url="http://t.co/3Hx29jse53"] PhD Comics: Overtime [contentcards url="http://t.co/OvTWTqYfTP"] Academic fraud in Political Science [contentcards url="http://t.co/ee0voTQ5tD"] Posters from the Soviet Space Age. [contentcards url="http://t.co/qn2Q3x4z18"] And finally, Fascinating longread on the LaCour affair [contentcards url="http://t.co/HlhC9PP3gX"]

On HoGeSa anniversary, minor clashes between right-wingers, “anti-fascists”, and police

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On the coattails of the Pegida anniversary, here is another far-right jubilee: A year on, self-declared hooligans have gathered once more for a “Hooligans against Salafists” (HoGeSa – those guys clearly love their acronyms) rally in Cologne. The two events could not have been more different. While Pegida is a largely regional weekly fixture that…

Links I Liked

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RT @internetofshit: And that’s when our smart devices learned to blackmail us Don’t forget blueprint for this building was stolen, too Unafraid of #Greek / #German national stereotypes? Try this hilariously stupid video: V is for #Varoufakis Exactly MT @BioDataGanache: Sometimes peer review goes wrong… dreadfully wrong. RT @SLdeLange: Charming new poster from UDC/SVP youth…

The Great German Right-Wing Carnival

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In Dresden, the style of political conflict has plunged to a new low yesterday night when Pegida marchers carried gallows “reserved for Merkel and [vice chancellor and SPD leader] Gabriel” – a classic extreme right prop that nicely complements the usual rallying cries of “lying press” and “traitors of the people”. At first I was…

Is there potential for anti-refugee left-wing populism in Germany?

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In the last couple of weeks, much has been said and written about the turning tide in German public opinion on refugees, the growing rift between Merkel and the CSU, the potential of a back-bench rebellion against the chancellor and party leader etc. But one of the most interesting (in my book) details is buried…

Merkel’s got 99 problems, but a trial ain’t one

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[caption id="" align="alignright" width="500"] Photo by Metropolico.org [/caption] Yesterday, the AfD has filed legal complaints against the chancellor with the public prosecutor, arguing that suspending the Dublin agreement violates the section of the penal code which bans human trafficking. As political PR stunts go, this is not a bad one: It cost the party exactly…