Empiricism: a slippery slope perhaps, but also one hell of a ride
Support for the radical right #AfD is up 3-4 points since May 2023. Most of that shift happened in May, but that does not mean that the surge is over.
Santa came early and brought me a volume, an issue & even some page numbers. In other word, my Politics & Religion article on the ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐น๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐บ is out in print (how very old school!). [bibtex file=ka.bib key=arzheimer-2022] But hey, it is still ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐๐ and digitally yours at https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755048322000104.
Working with repeated comparative survey data – almost a howto There is now a bonanza of studies that rely on surveys which are replicated across countries and time, often with fairly short intervals, with the ESS arguably one of the most prominent examples (but also see the “barometer” studies in various regions). Multi-level analysis is…
Just how badly biased is your pre-election survey? Once the election results are in, our scalar measures B and B_w provide convenient, single number summaries. Our surveybias add-on for Stata will calculate these and other measures from either raw data or from published margins. Its latest iteration (version 1.4) has just appeared on SSC. Surveybias…
Worried about survey bias? We have updated our add-on (or ado) surveybias, which calculates our multinomial generalisation of the old Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005) measure for survey bias. If you have any dichotomous or multinomial variable in your survey whose true distribution is known (e.g. from the census, electoral counts, or other official data),…
My very clever PhDers strike again: Here is yet another online survey (in German – auf Deutsch). This one is on political attitudes of students and takes just ten minutes of your. You might even win a gift voucher. Need I say more?
When I drove home from work a couple of days ago, I noticed a policeman flagging down precisely every tenth car in the other lane and directing the drivers towards a lay-by. He was in uniform, wearing hi-vis gear and his government-issued Walther, so non-compliance was clearly not an issue. The scene was completed by a large billboard, stating that this was no ordinary vehicle spotcheck but rather a road use survey. I badly want these guys on our team.
In this post (the second in a mini-series of posts on our Stata add-on surveybias), we demonstrate how to analyse survey bias in the absence of raw data, using our command surveybiasi.
In a recent publication (Arzheimer & Evans 2014), we propose a new multinomial measure B for bias in opinion surveys. We also supply a suite of ado files for Stata, surveybias, which plugs into Stata’s framework for estimation programs and provides estimates for this and other measures along with their standard errors. This is the first instalment in a mini series of posts that show how our commands can be used with real-world data. Here, we analyse the quality of a single French pre-election poll.