With just two days to go, this is my last look at AfD support in the polls before the 2024 EP elections.
In February 2024, support for the radical right AfD has dropped for the first time in more than six months. Here are the details.
Empiricism: a slippery slope perhaps, but also one hell of a ride
Support for the radical right #AfD is up 3-4 points since May 2023. Most of that shift happened in May, but that does not mean that the surge is over.
Santa came early and brought me a volume, an issue & even some page numbers. In other word, my Politics & Religion article on the 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝘂𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗺 is out in print (how very old school!). [bibtex file=ka.bib key=arzheimer-2022] But hey, it is still 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 and digitally yours at https://doi.org/10.1017/S1755048322000104.
Working with repeated comparative survey data – almost a howto There is now a bonanza of studies that rely on surveys which are replicated across countries and time, often with fairly short intervals, with the ESS arguably one of the most prominent examples (but also see the “barometer” studies in various regions). Multi-level analysis is…
Just how badly biased is your pre-election survey? Once the election results are in, our scalar measures B and B_w provide convenient, single number summaries. Our surveybias add-on for Stata will calculate these and other measures from either raw data or from published margins. Its latest iteration (version 1.4) has just appeared on SSC. Surveybias…
Worried about survey bias? We have updated our add-on (or ado) surveybias, which calculates our multinomial generalisation of the old Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005) measure for survey bias. If you have any dichotomous or multinomial variable in your survey whose true distribution is known (e.g. from the census, electoral counts, or other official data),…
My very clever PhDers strike again: Here is yet another online survey (in German – auf Deutsch). This one is on political attitudes of students and takes just ten minutes of your. You might even win a gift voucher. Need I say more?
When I drove home from work a couple of days ago, I noticed a policeman flagging down precisely every tenth car in the other lane and directing the drivers towards a lay-by. He was in uniform, wearing hi-vis gear and his government-issued Walther, so non-compliance was clearly not an issue. The scene was completed by a large billboard, stating that this was no ordinary vehicle spot check but rather a road use survey. I badly want these guys on our team.
