German men like stem-cell research, gene-editing. Abortion? Not so much

 Political Science  No Responses »
Jul 112020
 

Men are more positive about (some) reproductive science and technology than women

Here is a by-catch finding from my recent article on the micro-foundations of the two-worlds theory of moral policy (full article, ungated). In the article, I look at the effect of a) party identification, b) religiosity, and c) political secularism (a desire for the separation of religion from politics) on the preferred regulation of various moralized policies in Germany. I control for age, education, region (east vs west), and gender.

In the article, I don’t talk much about the gender effects, because a) there was a strict word limit and b) they are somewhat tangential to the article’s main argument. But I find them intriguing. Here is the main table from the article. Entries are logit coefficients (I know). What do all those numbers mean?

Controlling for everything else (including the slightly gendered differences in religiosity and secularism), male respondents are just a tad less likely than females to support women’s access to legal abortions, although the difference is nowhere near statistically significant. Conversely, men are slightly more supportive of research on human embryos for medical purposes, but again, the difference is not significant.

Controlling for age, education, region, religiosity, party ID & political secularism, men are more supportive of gene editing and extracting stem cells from human embryos for medical purposes than women. They are not more likely to support access to abortions.

Boys & their toys

However, once we turn to high-tech interventions – extracting stem cells from early embryos and gene editing – men are significantly more supportive than women. The effect is small compared to everything else that is going on in the model, but it is there even after controlling for religion, secularism, education et al.. If that does not make you think about gendered view on reproductive rights and control over female bodies, I don’t know what will.

Do you find this kind of research interesting?There is more where that came from.

Bonus track: show us the items

The article in all its glory is open access, so simply click to have a look at the whole thing. I think it’s fascinating stuff, but then again, I’m a nerd. The operationalisations are buried in an appendix, so I’m reproducing them here for easy reference.

AbortionIf a woman wants to have an abortion, this should be legal, no matter what her reasons are: no (0); yes (1)
EmbryosResearch on human embryos should be banned, even if this means that patients will not benefit from new treatments: disagree strongly, disagree somewhat (1); neither/nor, agree somewhat, fully agree (0)
Stem cellsIn stem cell research, scientists extract cells from a human embryo less than two weeks after fertilization. These cells are not implanted in a woman’s uterus but grown in the lab to treat patients with genetic disorders. Do you fully approve of this, requiring no specific regulation, approve if this is strictly regulated (1); approve only if there are exceptional circumstances, approve under no circumstances (0)
Gene therapyScientists are working on gene therapies: treatments that work by modifying the human genome. Do you fully approve of this, requiring no specific regulation, approve if this is strictly regulated (1); approve only if there are exceptional circumstances, approve under no circumstances (0)

The life and times of Henri Tajfel (podcast)

 Links, Political Science  2 Responses »
Jun 282020
 

Social Identity Theory is a prominent account of intergroup hostility and hence super interesting for political scientist. Groundbreaking work in this field was carried out by Henri Tajfel, who ran fascinating experiments back in the 1960s and 70s. Today, many of these would go nowhere near an IRB.

If you have 19 minutes to spare, this podcast delivers both a vignette of Tajfel’s life and a useful primer of Social Identity Theory đź“» 👇
Rupert Brown on Henri Tajfel #socialScienceBites

Max Weber and German Political Science

 Political Science  1 Response »
Jun 202020
 

Back in the mist of time that would eventually coalesce into my memories of the 1990s, I met a fellow PhD-er at a summer school. She had just returned to the fatherland after doing an MA in the UK and found re-integration into German Political Science rather difficult.

The toughest bit, according to her, was the collective obsession with Weberian concepts. She eventually solved that problem by assigning a set of (essentially random) choice MW quotes to the function keys of her keyboard. Or so she said.

Max Weber and German Political Science 1
An outsider’s view of German PolSci

I would not know, because this turned into reject after review and some substantial revisions. But after all these years, the meme still rings true.

 Tagged with:

How important are Germany’s eastern states for the AfD?

 Political Science  35 Responses »
May 292020
 

What?

I’m currently working on a paper that looks into the role that Germany’s eastern states (aka “the new Länder”, the ex-GDR …) played for the breakthrough and the consolidation of the “Alternative for Germany” party. This figure shows support for the AfD from 2013 to 2020.

The graph is a teeny-weeny bit busy, so here is the extended legend 👉 Circles are results from state (Länder elections), labelled with state codes. Squares are Bundestag, diamonds are European parliamentary elections. Filled symbols represent eastern Länder, or partial results for the eastern states only (Bundestag and EP elections). Hollow symbols represent the western states/partial western results. The blue line is the (locally smoothed) average over about 200 national elections polls from the Politbarometer (FGW) and Deutschlandtrend (Infratest-dimap) series. There are four main observations.

Graph showing electoral support for the AfD by region (east vs west) and level

Source: official results; Politbarometer & Deutschlandtrend polls

The eastern vote share is consistently at least two times as high as the western vote share

Not exactly a new finding, but the AfD does much better in the east than in the west. In fact, so much better that some observers see the party as specifically eastern problem. This is not correct, but the difference is striking. Even in the 2013 Bundestag election (when the AfD campaigned as a soft-eurosceptic, “liberal-conservative” outfit), the party was clearly more popular in the east. Possible reasons: fewer partisans, lower levels of institutional trust, more xenophobia.

The AfD might not have survived 2015 without the eastern states

Almost exactly 5 years ago, the AfD was almost falling apart (also see just about every other of my blog posts from that period). Support for the party fell below 5 per cent (also see the section after the next), prominent members threatened to leave or simply went. The FAZ called them, in their professional journalistic assessment, “a laughing stock”. Radically transformed (see what I did here?), the party bounced back in 2016, but during this period, their only full-time politicians with access to funding and the media (apart from two remaining MEPs) were about 30 state-level MPs who had won seats in the 2014 series of elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia – incidentally on platforms that presaged the AfD’s trajectory towards the Radical Right.

Eastern state MPs outnumbered their western counterparts until 2017

It’s not directly visible in the graph, but: the higher vote share in the east (combined with the electoral calendar, the relatively large number of eastern states, and the disproportionate size of small-state legislatures) meant that until the Bundestag election in September 2017, there were twice as many AfD (state) MPs in the east. Although the east has just over one fifth of the population and about the quarter of the AfD members, a large chunk of the party elite was recruited (though not necessarily born) in the east. Even after the 2017 election, about half of the MPs (state and federal) were eastern.

The AfD’s downward trend began long before Corona

Journalists love a good story, and they like to link the AfD’s current underwhelming performance in the polls to the fact that people are weary of populists in a crisis, and the AfD’s mixed messages on COVID. But it is also clear that the AfD’s support in national polls peaked in 2018. The declining salience of immigration and the revelations on right-wing extremists within and around the AfD have not exactly helped. Support for the party has ebbed and flowed before, and local polynomial regression by design tends to exaggerate trends at the margins of a plot, but it is clear that support began to fall months before Corona became the dominant issue in Germany and elsewhere.

For Germany, May 8 is a day of liberation, not of surrender

 Political Science, Politics  3 Responses »
May 082020
 

On May the 8th 1945, the Wehrmacht surrendered, bringing the war in Europe and the terror reign of the Nazis to an end.1 40 years later, then-president Richard von Weizsäcker, himself a former officer of the Wehrmacht and a scion of the same Prussian gentry that for centuries has supplied the army with cadets, kicked a hornets’ nest by calling it “a day of liberation”.2 While the “liberation” angle seems rather obvious, it was revolutionary at the time, especially coming from a (liberal-minded) member of the CDU.

Since then, the debate in Germany’s editorials has never fully stopped. While “liberation” has been the dominant narrative for a while, there are still conservative holdouts that point to the military defeat and ensuing loss of territory.

An initiative to make May 8 a national holiday on its 75th anniversary has come to naught. In a statement that resonates with Trumpian “good people on both sides”, Alexander Gauland, the AfD’s godfather, pointed out that May 8 “is ambivalent. It was a day of liberation for the inmates of concentration camps. But it was also a day of utter defeat …”. Think about this, and the implications, for a second.

In 2020, 77 per cent of Germans see the end of the war as liberation, only five per cent think of it as defeat

Survey data (infratest dimap) on Germans’ views of the end of the war in Europe

Somewhat surprisingly, the general public has moved on from this stale debate a while ago. A survey by infratest dimap shows that like in 2005, more than 75 per cent of the population see May 8 as liberation, while a mere 5 per cent think of defeat, with the rest being ambivalent or not willing/able to answer the question.

The breakdown by party supporters is striking, but not really surprising: more than 30 per cent of the AfD’s supporters see the end of the war as a defeat, for all other parties, this number is in the low single figures. I leave the fact that the FDP has by far the highest number of ambivalents as an exercise for the reader.

Footnotes:

1Incidentally, it is also our wedding anniversary, but that is probably besides the point.

2Were it not inappropriate, you might even say he caught a lot of flack.

Video: the Rise of the Far Right in Germany

 Political Science  2 Responses »
Apr 222020
 

A year ago, Sofia Porcarelli, a student at Occidental College, approached me because she was making a documentary movie about the far right in Germany. That’s way more interesting than a plain old thesis, right? Right. So I was very happy to be interviewed as one of her sources.

Today, I’m even happier to report that Sofia has shared the final product on youtube. Very chuffed, obviously.

Creating Fear: The Rise of the Right Wing in Germany

Watch this video on YouTube.

 

The Far Right Bibliography: the pandemic (aka spring 2020) update

 Political Science  26 Responses »
Apr 162020
 

What bibliography?

The Eclectic, Erratic Bibliography on the Extreme Right (in (Western) Europe)™ is a collection of references on far right parties & their voters. Most of the titles fall in to the field of Political Science (broadly defined), but some contributions from related disciplines (most notably sociology, psychology, and economy) are included, too. You a free to browse the bibliography, download it (most reference software can import this format), curse it – whatever floats your boat. If you are aware of any titles that should be in the bibliography, please send me the reference (and the PDF if you have it).

(Lazy? Just watch it)

The Radical Right Bibliography: Spring 2020 update

Watch this video on YouTube.

What is new?

Since November 2019, I have added 49 new titles to the bibliography. This brings the total number of entries to 955. Most of the new titles are fairly recent and were only published in the last couple of years or so.

Publication yearn
201928
202017
20182
20131
20171

This contributes to an interesting phenomenon: almost 20 per cent of the titles in the bibliography (which has existed in one form or another for more than two decades) were published after 2017. I might get better at spotting stuff, people might be more willing to send me pointers to their work, or (this my hunch) the literature is exploding.

Almost all (48) of them are articles that were published in (peer-reviewed) journals. This is in line with the bibliography’s existing bias towards articles: since the early 2000s, articles are outpacing any other type of publication.

Number of new publications on the radical right by year of publication

I’m not sure if this reflects my personal reading habits or a more general shift in publication practices. Here are the outlets in which the 48 articles were published. Again, this is broadly in line with past patterns.

Journaln
European Journal of Political Research4
Party Politics4
Political Psychology4
West European Politics4
Nations and Nationalism3
Social Science Quarterly3
Electoral Studies2
Journal of European Public Policy2
Politics2
Politische Vierteljahresschrift2
Comparative European Politics1
Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences1
European Journal of Personality1
European Political Science1
French Politics1
German Politics1
Government and Opposition1
International Journal of Public Opinion Research1
Journal of Democracy1
Patterns of Prejudice1
Polish Political Science Review1
Political Analysis1
Political Behavior1
Political Geography1
Political Studies1
Scandinavian Political Studies1
SSRN Electronic Journal1
The British Journal of Politics and International Relations1

What are they writing about?

I made a quick word cloud from the titles and abstracts. Click on the image for a bigger and mildly interactive version. Like in previous updates, the adjective “radical” stands out, whereas “extreme” and is mentioned only once. This neatly reflects the influence of Cas Mudde’s typology, but also the realities of West European party politics, where openly anti-democratic ideas are not popular with voters.

Radical Right Bibliography April 2020 Update: Wordcloud

Click on the image to open a bigger and slightly more interactive version in a new tab

Populist(s) and populism are just as, well, popular. The same goes for party/parties. Some stemming would have made this more easily visible, but stems look really ugly in a word cloud (“the pie chart of text analysis” – I know). Europe, western, support, voting, immigration, and national are runners up. Pie chart or not, this makes it clear that the new entries contribute to the bibliography’s existing focus/bias (delete as appropriate) on .

 

Who is writing all these articles?

Last time ’round, the answer to that question was a resounding and depressing “Michael”. This time, it is an equally resounding/depressing “Christian”.

Radical Right Bibliography April 2020 update: first names of authors by gender

Only 29 of the 104 unique authors of the new crop are female, which amounts to 28 per cent. This has been bugging me for a long time, so I decided to have a look at the bigger picture, i.e. the 1990-2020 period that includes 97 per cent of all titles.

Because the number of authors is large, I used an algorithm that relies on US Social Security Administration baby name data to assign gender probabilities to names. This is not perfect and tends to overestimate the share of female authors, at least in a largely European context (looking at you, Andrea, Nicola, Matti, and even Reinhold (?)). I also decided to count each publication in which an author was involved in a given year as a case, i.e. I factored in the number of publications.

Radical Right Bibliography: share of female authors over time

The share varies considerably from year to year, so I added a lowess smoother. The results suggests a very slow but appreciable upward trend. However, the data also show that there was a period in the late 1990s/early 2000s, when the share of female authors was higher than it was over the last decade or so. This resonates with Sarah de Lange’s description of a worrying development in the field. So, if you are female, please send me your work on right-wing radicalism. The men do it. All. The. Time.

Show us the goods

These are all the new titles in their full glory. Click here to download/import them into your reference manager software.

  • Allen, Trevor J.. “Exit To the Right? Comparing Far Right Voters and Abstainers in Western Europe.” Electoral Studies 50 (2017): 103–115. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.012
    [BibTeX]
    @article{allen-2017b,
author = {Trevor J. Allen},
title = {Exit To the Right? Comparing Far Right Voters and Abstainers in Western Europe},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
year = {2017},
volume = {50},
pages = {103--115},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.012},
}

  • Bernhard, Laurent and Hanspeter Kriesi. “Populism in Election Times: a Comparative Analysis of 11 Countries in Western Europe.” West European Politics 42.6 (2019): 1188–1208. doi:10.1080/01402382.2019.1596694
    [BibTeX]
    @article{bernhard-kriesi-2019,
author = {Laurent Bernhard and Hanspeter Kriesi},
title = {Populism in Election Times: a Comparative Analysis of 11 Countries in Western Europe},
journal = {West European Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {42},
number = {6},
pages = {1188--1208},
doi = {10.1080/01402382.2019.1596694},
}

  • Bolet, Diane. “Local Labour Market Competition and Radical Right Voting: Evidence From France.” European Journal of Political Research online first (2020). doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12378
    [BibTeX]
    @article{bolet-2020,
author = {Diane Bolet},
title = {Local Labour Market Competition and Radical Right Voting: Evidence From France},
journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12378},
}

  • Bolin, Niklas and Nicholas Aylott. “Right-wing Populist Party Leadership in Sweden : One of a Kind Or One of the Crowd?.” Polish Political Science Review 7.1 (2019): 24–40. doi:10.2478/ppsr-2019-0002
    [BibTeX]
    @article{bolin-aylott-2019,
author = {Niklas Bolin and Nicholas Aylott},
title = {Right-wing Populist Party Leadership in Sweden : One of a Kind Or One of the Crowd?},
journal = {Polish Political Science Review},
year = {2019},
volume = {7},
number = {1},
pages = {24--40},
doi = {10.2478/ppsr-2019-0002},
}

  • Bos, Linda, Christian Schemer, Nicoleta Corbu, Michael Hameleers, Ioannis Andreadis, Anne Schulz, DesirĂ©e Schmuck, Carsten Reinemann, and Nayla Fawzi. “The Effects of Populism as a Social Identity Frame on Persuasion and Mobilisation: Evidence From a 15-country Experiment.” European Journal of Political Research 59.1 (2020): 3–24. doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12334
    [BibTeX]
    @article{bos-schemer-corbu-hameleers-andreadis-schulz-schmuck-reinemann-fawzi-2020,
author = {Linda Bos and Christian Schemer and Nicoleta Corbu and Michael Hameleers and Ioannis Andreadis and Anne Schulz and Desir\'{e}e Schmuck and Carsten Reinemann and Nayla Fawzi},
title = {The Effects of Populism as a Social Identity Frame on Persuasion and Mobilisation: Evidence From a 15-country Experiment},
journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
year = {2020},
volume = {59},
number = {1},
pages = {3--24},
doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12334},
}

  • Bustikova, Lenka. Extreme Reactions: Radical Right Mobilization in Eastern Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2019.
    [BibTeX]
    @book{bustikova-2019,
author = {Lenka Bustikova},
title = {Extreme Reactions: Radical Right Mobilization in Eastern Europe},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
year = {2019},
address = {Cambridge},
}

  • Bustikova, Lenka, David S. Siroky, Saud Alashri, and Sultan Alzahrani. “Predicting Partisan Responsiveness: A Probabilistic Text Mining Time-Series Approach.” Political Analysis 28.1 (2020): 47–64. doi:10.1017/pan.2019.18
    [BibTeX]
    @article{bustikova-siroky-alashri-alzahrani-2020,
author = {Lenka Bustikova and David S. Siroky and Saud Alashri and Sultan Alzahrani},
title = {Predicting Partisan Responsiveness: A Probabilistic Text Mining Time-Series Approach},
journal = {Political Analysis},
year = {2020},
volume = {28},
number = {1},
pages = {47--64},
doi = {10.1017/pan.2019.18},
}

  • a’e, Hilde Coff. “Gender, gendered personality traits and radical right populist voting.” Politics 39.2 (2019): 170–185. doi:10.1177/0263395717745476
    [BibTeX]
    @article{coffe-2019,
author = {Hilde Coff{\a'e}},
title = {Gender, gendered personality traits and radical right populist voting},
journal = {Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {39},
number = {2},
pages = {170--185},
doi = {10.1177/0263395717745476},
}

  • D’Alimonte, Roberto. “How the Populists Won in Italy..” Journal of Democracy 30.1 (2019): 114–127.
    [BibTeX]
    @article{dalimonte-2019,
author = {Roberto D'Alimonte},
title = {How the Populists Won in Italy.},
journal = {Journal of Democracy},
year = {2019},
volume = {30},
number = {1},
pages = {114--127},
}

  • Davis, Nicholas T., Kirby Goidel, Christine S. Lipsmeyer, Guy D. Whitten, and Clifford Young. “Economic Vulnerability, Cultural Decline, and Nativism: Contingent and Indirect Effects.” Social Science Quarterly 100.2 (2019): 430–446. doi:10.1111/ssqu.12591
    [BibTeX]
    @article{davis-goidel-lipsmeyer-whitten-young-2019,
author = {Nicholas T. Davis and Kirby Goidel and Christine S. Lipsmeyer and Guy D. Whitten and Clifford Young},
title = {Economic Vulnerability, Cultural Decline, and Nativism: Contingent and Indirect Effects},
journal = {Social Science Quarterly},
year = {2019},
volume = {100},
number = {2},
pages = {430--446},
doi = {10.1111/ssqu.12591},
}

  • Davis, Nicholas T., Kirby Goidel, Christine S. Lipsmeyer, Guy D. Whitten, and Clifford Young. “The Political Consequences of Nativism: The Impact of Nativist Sentiment on Party Support*.” Social Science Quarterly 100.2 (2019): 466–479. doi:10.1111/ssqu.12596
    [BibTeX]
    @article{davis-goidel-lipsmeyer-whitten-young-2019b,
author = {Nicholas T. Davis and Kirby Goidel and Christine S. Lipsmeyer and Guy D. Whitten and Clifford Young},
title = {The Political Consequences of Nativism: The Impact of Nativist Sentiment on Party Support*},
journal = {Social Science Quarterly},
year = {2019},
volume = {100},
number = {2},
pages = {466--479},
doi = {10.1111/ssqu.12596},
}

  • Down, Ian and Kyung Joon Han. “Marginalisation Or Legitimation? Mainstream Party Positioning on Immigration and Support for Radical Right Parties.” West European Politics (2019): online first. doi:10.1080/01402382.2019.1674055
    [BibTeX]
    @article{down-han-2019,
author = {Ian Down and Kyung Joon Han},
title = {Marginalisation Or Legitimation? Mainstream Party Positioning on Immigration and Support for Radical Right Parties},
journal = {West European Politics},
year = {2019},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1080/01402382.2019.1674055},
}

  • Engler, Sarah and David Weisstanner. “The Threat of Social Decline: Income Inequality and Radical Right Support.” Journal of European Public Policy online first (2020). doi:10.1080/13501763.2020.1733636
    [BibTeX]
    @article{engler-weisstanner-2020,
author = {Sarah Engler and David Weisstanner},
title = {The Threat of Social Decline: Income Inequality and Radical Right Support},
journal = {Journal of European Public Policy},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1080/13501763.2020.1733636},
}

  • Evans, Geoffrey and Jonathan Mellon. “Immigration, Euroscepticism, and the rise and fall of UKIP.” Party Politics 25.1 (2019): 76–87. doi:10.1177/1354068818816969
    [BibTeX]
    @article{evans-mellon-2019,
author = {Geoffrey Evans and Jonathan Mellon},
title = {Immigration, Euroscepticism, and the rise and fall of UKIP},
journal = {Party Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {25},
number = {1},
pages = {76--87},
doi = {10.1177/1354068818816969},
}

  • Green-Pedersen, Christoffer and Simon Otjes. “A hot topic? Immigration on the agenda in Western Europe.” Party Politics 25.3 (2019): 424–434. doi:10.1177/1354068817728211
    [BibTeX]
    @article{green-pedersen-otjes-2019,
author = {Christoffer Green-Pedersen and Simon Otjes},
title = {A hot topic? Immigration on the agenda in Western Europe},
journal = {Party Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {25},
number = {3},
pages = {424--434},
doi = {10.1177/1354068817728211},
}

  • GrĂĽndl, Johann and Julian Aichholzer. “Support for the Populist Radical Right: Between Uncertainty Avoidance and Risky Choice.” Political Psychology online first (2020). doi:10.1111/pops.12643
    [BibTeX]
    @article{gruendl-aichholzer-2020,
author = {Johann Gr{\"u}ndl and Julian Aichholzer},
title = {Support for the Populist Radical Right: Between Uncertainty Avoidance and Risky Choice},
journal = {Political Psychology},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1111/pops.12643},
}

  • Halikiopoulou, Daphne and Tim Vlandas. “What Is New and What Is Nationalist About Europe’s New Nationalism? Explaining the Rise of the Far Right in Europe.” Nations and Nationalism 25.2 (2019): 409–434. doi:10.1111/nana.12515
    [BibTeX]
    @article{halikiopoulou-vlandas-2019,
author = {Daphne Halikiopoulou and Tim Vlandas},
title = {What Is New and What Is Nationalist About Europe's New Nationalism? Explaining the Rise of the Far Right in Europe},
journal = {Nations and Nationalism},
year = {2019},
volume = {25},
number = {2},
pages = {409--434},
doi = {10.1111/nana.12515},
}

  • Haugsgjerd, Atle. “Moderation or radicalisation? How executive power affects right-wing populists’ satisfaction with democracy.” Electoral Studies 57 (2019): 31–45. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2018.09.008
    [BibTeX]
    @article{haugsgjerd-2019,
author = {Atle Haugsgjerd},
title = {Moderation or radicalisation? How executive power affects right-wing populists' satisfaction with democracy},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
year = {2019},
volume = {57},
pages = {31--45},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2018.09.008},
}

  • Hauwaert, Steven Van M.. “On Far Right Parties, Master Frames and Trans-National Diffusion: Understanding Far Right Party Development in Western Europe.” Comparative European Politics (2018): online first. doi:10.1057/s41295-017-0112-z
    [BibTeX]
    @article{hauwaert-2018b,
author = {Steven M. Van Hauwaert},
title = {On Far Right Parties, Master Frames and Trans-National Diffusion: Understanding Far Right Party Development in Western Europe},
journal = {Comparative European Politics},
year = {2018},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1057/s41295-017-0112-z},
}

  • Hauwaert, Steven Van M., Christian H. Schimpf, and Flavio Azevedo. “The Measurement of Populist Attitudes: Testing Cross-national Scales Using Item Response Theory.” Politics 40.1 (2020): 3–21. doi:10.1177/0263395719859306
    [BibTeX]
    @article{hauwaert-schimpf-azevedo-2020,
author = {Steven M. Van Hauwaert and Christian H. Schimpf and Flavio Azevedo},
title = {The Measurement of Populist Attitudes: Testing Cross-national Scales Using Item Response Theory},
journal = {Politics},
year = {2020},
volume = {40},
number = {1},
pages = {3--21},
doi = {10.1177/0263395719859306},
}

  • Heinisch, Reinhard, Steven Saxonberg, Annika Werner, and Fabian Habersack. “The effect of radical right fringe parties on main parties in Central and Eastern Europe: Empirical evidence from manifesto data.” Party Politics (2019): online first. doi:10.1177/1354068819863620
    [BibTeX]
    @article{heinisch-saxonberg-werner-habersack-2019,
author = {Reinhard Heinisch and Steven Saxonberg and Annika Werner and Fabian Habersack},
title = {The effect of radical right fringe parties on main parties in Central and Eastern Europe: Empirical evidence from manifesto data},
journal = {Party Politics},
year = {2019},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1177/1354068819863620},
}

  • Hutchins, Rachel D. and Daphne Halikiopoulou. “Enemies of Liberty? Nationalism, Immigration, and the Framing of Terrorism in the Agenda of the Front National.” Nations and Nationalism 26.1 (2020): 67–84. doi:10.1111/nana.12555
    [BibTeX]
    @article{hutchins-halikiopoulou-2020,
author = {Rachel D. Hutchins and Daphne Halikiopoulou},
title = {Enemies of Liberty? Nationalism, Immigration, and the Framing of Terrorism in the Agenda of the Front National},
journal = {Nations and Nationalism},
year = {2020},
volume = {26},
number = {1},
pages = {67--84},
doi = {10.1111/nana.12555},
}

  • Jacobs, Laura and Joost van Spanje. “Martyrs for Free Speech? Disentangling the Effects of Legal Prosecution of Anti-immigration Politicians on their Electoral Support.” Political Behavior (2019). doi:10.1007/s11109-019-09581-6
    [BibTeX]
    @article{jacobs-spanje-2019,
author = {Laura Jacobs and Joost {van Spanje}},
title = {Martyrs for Free Speech? Disentangling the Effects of Legal Prosecution of Anti-immigration Politicians on their Electoral Support},
journal = {Political Behavior},
year = {2019},
doi = {10.1007/s11109-019-09581-6},
}

  • Jylhä, Kirsti M., Jens Rydgren, and Pontus Strimling. “Radical Right-wing Voters From Right and Left: Comparing Sweden Democrat Voters Who Previously Voted for the Conservative Party Or the Social Democratic Party.” Scandinavian Political Studies 42.3-4 (2019): 220–244. doi:10.1111/1467-9477.12147
    [BibTeX]
    @article{jylhae-rydgren-strimling-2019,
author = {Kirsti M. Jylh{\"a} and Jens Rydgren and Pontus Strimling},
title = {Radical Right-wing Voters From Right and Left: Comparing Sweden Democrat Voters Who Previously Voted for the Conservative Party Or the Social Democratic Party},
journal = {Scandinavian Political Studies},
year = {2019},
volume = {42},
number = {3-4},
pages = {220--244},
doi = {10.1111/1467-9477.12147},
}

  • Kende, Anna and P{a’e}ter Krek a’o. “Xenophobia, Prejudice, and Right-wing Populism in East-central Europe.” Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences 34 (2020): 29–33. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2019.11.011
    [BibTeX]
    @article{kende-kreko-2020,
author = {Anna Kende and P{\a'e}ter Krek{\a'o}},
title = {Xenophobia, Prejudice, and Right-wing Populism in East-central Europe},
journal = {Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences},
year = {2020},
volume = {34},
pages = {29--33},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2019.11.011},
}

  • van Kessel, Stijn, Nicola Chelotti, Helen Drake, Juan Roch, and Patricia Rodi. “Eager To Leave? Populist Radical Right Parties’ Responses To the UK’s Brexit Vote.” The British Journal of Politics and International Relations 22.1 (2020): 65–84. doi:10.1177/1369148119886213
    [BibTeX]
    @article{kessel-chelotti-drake-roch-rodi-2020,
author = {Stijn {van Kessel} and Nicola Chelotti and Helen Drake and Juan Roch and Patricia Rodi},
title = {Eager To Leave? Populist Radical Right Parties’ Responses To the UK's Brexit Vote},
journal = {The British Journal of Politics and International Relations},
year = {2020},
volume = {22},
number = {1},
pages = {65--84},
doi = {10.1177/1369148119886213},
}

  • Lancaster, Caroline Marie. “Not So Radical After All: Ideological Diversity Among Radical Right Supporters and Its Implications.” Political Studies (2019): online first. doi:10.1177/0032321719870468
    [BibTeX]
    @article{lancaster-2019,
author = {Caroline Marie Lancaster},
title = {Not So Radical After All: Ideological Diversity Among Radical Right Supporters and Its Implications},
journal = {Political Studies},
year = {2019},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1177/0032321719870468},
}

  • Lubbers, Marcel. “What kind of nationalism sets the radical right and its electorate apart from the rest? Pride in the nation’s history as part of nationalist nostalgia.” Nations and Nationalism 25.2 (2019): 449–466. doi:10.1111/nana.12517
    [BibTeX]
    @article{lubbers-2019,
author = {Marcel Lubbers},
title = {What kind of nationalism sets the radical right and its electorate apart from the rest? Pride in the nation's history as part of nationalist nostalgia},
journal = {Nations and Nationalism},
year = {2019},
volume = {25},
number = {2},
pages = {449--466},
doi = {10.1111/nana.12517},
}

  • Martin, Christian W.. “Electoral Participation and Right Wing Authoritarian Success – Evidence from the 2017 Federal Elections in Germany.” Politische Vierteljahresschrift 60.2 (2019): 245–271.
    [BibTeX]
    @article{martin-2019,
author = {Christian W. Martin},
title = {Electoral Participation and Right Wing Authoritarian Success – Evidence from the 2017 Federal Elections in Germany},
journal = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift},
year = {2019},
volume = {60},
number = {2},
pages = {245--271},
}

  • Mayer, Sabrina J., Carl C. Berning, and David Johann. “The Two Dimensions of Narcissistic Personality and Support for the Radical Right: The Role of Right-wing Authoritarianism, Social Dominance Orientation and Anti-immigrant Sentiment.” European Journal of Personality (2020): online first. doi:10.1002/per.2228
    [BibTeX]
    @article{mayer-berning-johann-2020,
author = {Sabrina J. Mayer and Carl C. Berning and David Johann},
title = {The Two Dimensions of Narcissistic Personality and Support for the Radical Right: The Role of Right-wing Authoritarianism, Social Dominance Orientation and Anti-immigrant Sentiment},
journal = {European Journal of Personality},
year = {2020},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1002/per.2228},
}

  • Nijs, Tom, Tobias H. Stark, and Maykel Verkuyten. “Negative Intergroup Contact and Radical Right-Wing Voting: The Moderating Roles of Personal and Collective Self-Efficacy.” Political Psychology 40.5 (2019): 1057–1073. doi:10.1111/pops.12577
    [BibTeX]
    @article{nijs-stark-verkuyten-2019,
author = {Tom Nijs and Tobias H. Stark and Maykel Verkuyten},
title = {Negative Intergroup Contact and Radical Right-Wing Voting: The Moderating Roles of Personal and Collective Self-Efficacy},
journal = {Political Psychology},
year = {2019},
volume = {40},
number = {5},
pages = {1057--1073},
doi = {10.1111/pops.12577},
}

  • Pytlas, Bartek. “Radical-right Narratives in Slovakia and Hungary: Historical Legacies, Mythic Overlaying and Contemporary Politics.” Patterns of Prejudice 47.2 (2013): 162–183. doi:10.1080/0031322X.2013.786199
    [BibTeX]
    @article{pytlas-2013,
author = {Bartek Pytlas},
title = {Radical-right Narratives in Slovakia and Hungary: Historical Legacies, Mythic Overlaying and Contemporary Politics},
journal = {Patterns of Prejudice},
year = {2013},
volume = {47},
number = {2},
pages = {162--183},
doi = {10.1080/0031322X.2013.786199},
}

  • Rathgeb, Philip. “Makers Against Takers: the Socio-economic Ideology and Policy of the Austrian Freedom Party.” West European Politics online first (2020). doi:10.1080/01402382.2020.1720400
    [BibTeX]
    @article{rathgeb-2020,
author = {Philip Rathgeb},
title = {Makers Against Takers: the Socio-economic Ideology and Policy of the Austrian Freedom Party},
journal = {West European Politics},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1080/01402382.2020.1720400},
}

  • Rothmund, Tobias, Laurits Bromme, and Fl a’a. “Justice for the People? How Justice Sensitivity Can Foster and Impair Support for Populist Radical-Right Parties and Politicians in the United States and in Germany.” Political Psychology (2020): online first. doi:10.1111/pops.12632
    [BibTeX]
    @article{rothmund-bromme-azevedo-2020,
author = {Tobias Rothmund and Laurits Bromme and Fl{\a'a}vio Azevedo},
title = {Justice for the People? How Justice Sensitivity Can Foster and Impair Support for Populist Radical-Right Parties and Politicians in the United States and in Germany},
journal = {Political Psychology},
year = {2020},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1111/pops.12632},
}

  • Rovny, Jan and Jonathan Polk. “Still Blurry? Economic Salience, Position and Voting for Radical Right Parties in Western Europe.” European Journal of Political Research (2019): online first. doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12356
    [BibTeX]
    @article{rovny-polk-2019,
author = {Jan Rovny and Jonathan Polk},
title = {Still Blurry? Economic Salience, Position and Voting for Radical Right Parties in Western Europe},
journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
year = {2019},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12356},
}

  • Schaub, Max and Davide Morisi. “Voter Mobilisation in the Echo Chamber: Broadband Internet and the Rise of Populism in Europe.” European Journal of Political Research online first (2020). doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12373
    [BibTeX]
    @article{schaub-morisi-2020,
author = {Max Schaub and Davide Morisi},
title = {Voter Mobilisation in the Echo Chamber: Broadband Internet and the Rise of Populism in Europe},
journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12373},
}

  • Schmuck, DesirĂ©e and Jörg Matthes. “Voting “Against Islamization”? How Anti-Islamic Right-Wing, Populist Political Campaign Ads Influence Explicit and Implicit Attitudes Toward Muslims as Well as Voting Preferences.” Political Psychology 40.4 (2019): 739–757. doi:10.1111/pops.12557
    [BibTeX]
    @article{schmuck-matthes-2019,
author = {Desir\'{e}e Schmuck and J{\"o}rg Matthes},
title = {Voting {"}Against Islamization{"}? How Anti-Islamic Right-Wing, Populist Political Campaign Ads Influence Explicit and Implicit Attitudes Toward Muslims as Well as Voting Preferences},
journal = {Political Psychology},
year = {2019},
volume = {40},
number = {4},
pages = {739--757},
doi = {10.1111/pops.12557},
}

  • Schulte-Cloos, Julia and Tobias RĂĽttenauer. “A Transformation From Within? Dynamics of Party Activists and the Rise of the German Afd.” SSRN Electronic Journal (2018). doi:10.2139/ssrn.3306183
    [BibTeX]
    @article{schulte-cloos-ruettenauer-2018,
author = {Julia Schulte-Cloos and Tobias R{\"u}ttenauer},
title = {A Transformation From Within? Dynamics of Party Activists and the Rise of the German Afd},
journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
year = {2018},
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3306183},
}

  • Siegers, Pascal and Alexander Jedinger. “Religious Immunity To Populism: Christian Religiosity and Public Support for the Alternative for Germany.” German Politics (2020): online first. doi:10.1080/09644008.2020.1723002
    [BibTeX]
    @article{siegers-jedinger-2020,
author = {Pascal Siegers and Alexander Jedinger},
title = {Religious Immunity To Populism: Christian Religiosity and Public Support for the Alternative for Germany},
journal = {German Politics},
year = {2020},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1080/09644008.2020.1723002},
}

  • Spoon, Jae-Jae and Heike KlĂĽver. “Responding To Far Right Challengers: Does Accommodation Pay Off?.” Journal of European Public Policy 27.2 (2020): 273–291. doi:10.1080/13501763.2019.1701530
    [BibTeX]
    @article{spoon-kluever-2020,
author = {Jae-Jae Spoon and Heike Kl{\"u}ver},
title = {Responding To Far Right Challengers: Does Accommodation Pay Off?},
journal = {Journal of European Public Policy},
year = {2020},
volume = {27},
number = {2},
pages = {273--291},
doi = {10.1080/13501763.2019.1701530},
}

  • Stecker, Christian and Marc Debus. “Refugees Welcome? Zum Einfluss der FlĂĽchtlingsunterbringung auf den Wahlerfolg der AfD bei der Bundestagswahl 2017 in Bayern.” Politische Vierteljahresschrift 60.2 (2019): 299–323. doi:10.1007/s11615-019-00151-3
    [BibTeX]
    @article{stecker-debus-2019,
author = {Christian Stecker and Marc Debus},
title = {Refugees Welcome? Zum Einfluss der FlĂĽchtlingsunterbringung auf den Wahlerfolg der AfD bei der Bundestagswahl 2017 in Bayern},
journal = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift},
year = {2019},
volume = {60},
number = {2},
pages = {299--323},
doi = {10.1007/s11615-019-00151-3},
}

  • Stockemer, Daniel. “What Is Right-Wing Populism and How Does It Manifest Itself? an Analysis of the French National Front’s Facebook Posts and Sympathizers’ Facebook Comments.” French Politics 17.3 (2019): 340–354. doi:10.1057/s41253-019-00082-w
    [BibTeX]
    @article{stockemer-2019,
author = {Daniel Stockemer},
title = {What Is Right-Wing Populism and How Does It Manifest Itself? an Analysis of the French National Front's Facebook Posts and Sympathizers' Facebook Comments},
journal = {French Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {17},
number = {3},
pages = {340--354},
doi = {10.1057/s41253-019-00082-w},
}

  • Szöcsik, Edina and Alina Polyakova. “Euroscepticism and the Electoral Success of the Far Right: the Role of the Strategic Interaction Between Center and Far Right.” European Political Science 18.3 (2019): 400–420. doi:10.1057/s41304-018-0162-y
    [BibTeX]
    @article{szoecsik-polyakova-2019,
author = {Edina Sz{\"o}csik and Alina Polyakova},
title = {Euroscepticism and the Electoral Success of the Far Right: the Role of the Strategic Interaction Between Center and Far Right},
journal = {European Political Science},
year = {2019},
volume = {18},
number = {3},
pages = {400--420},
doi = {10.1057/s41304-018-0162-y},
}

  • Wettstein, Martin, Anne Schulz, Marco Steenbergen, Christian Schemer, Philipp MĂĽller, Dominique S. Wirz, and Werner Wirth. “Measuring Populism Across Nations: Testing for Measurement Invariance of an Inventory of Populist Attitudes.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research (2019). doi:10.1093/ijpor/edz018
    [BibTeX]
    @article{wettstein-schulz-steenbergen-schemer-mueller-wirz-wirth-2019,
author = {Martin Wettstein and Anne Schulz and Marco Steenbergen and Christian Schemer and Philipp M{\"u}ller and Dominique S. Wirz and Werner Wirth},
title = {Measuring Populism Across Nations: Testing for Measurement Invariance of an Inventory of Populist Attitudes},
journal = {International Journal of Public Opinion Research},
year = {2019},
doi = {10.1093/ijpor/edz018},
}

  • Whiteley, Paul, Erik Larsen, Matthew Goodwin, and Harold Clarke. “Party Activism in the Populist Radical Right: the Case of the Uk Independence Party.” Party Politics online first (2019). doi:10.1177/1354068819880142
    [BibTeX]
    @article{whiteley-larsen-goodwin-clarke-2019,
author = {Paul Whiteley and Erik Larsen and Matthew Goodwin and Harold Clarke},
title = {Party Activism in the Populist Radical Right: the Case of the Uk Independence Party},
journal = {Party Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1177/1354068819880142},
}

  • van Wijk, DaniĂ«l, Gideon Bolt, and Jochem Tolsma. “Where does ethnic concentration matter for populist radical right support? An analysis of geographical scale and the halo effect.” Political Geography 77 (2020): online first. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.102097
    [BibTeX]
    @article{wijk-bolt-tolsma-2020,
author = {Dani{\"e}l {van Wijk} and Gideon Bolt and Jochem Tolsma},
title = {Where does ethnic concentration matter for populist radical right support? An analysis of geographical scale and the halo effect},
journal = {Political Geography},
year = {2020},
volume = {77},
pages = {online first},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2019.102097},
}

  • Zulianello, Mattia. “Varieties of Populist Parties and Party Systems in Europe: From State-of-the-Art to the Application of a Novel Classification Scheme to 66 Parties in 33 Countries.” Government and Opposition (2019): 1–21. doi:10.1017/gov.2019.21
    [BibTeX]
    @article{zulianello-2019b,
author = {Mattia Zulianello},
title = {Varieties of Populist Parties and Party Systems in Europe: From State-of-the-Art to the Application of a Novel Classification Scheme to 66 Parties in 33 Countries},
journal = {Government and Opposition},
year = {2019},
pages = {1--21},
doi = {10.1017/gov.2019.21},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
}

  • Zhao, Yikai. “Testing the Measurement Invariance of Nativism.” Social Science Quarterly 100.2 (2019): 419–429. doi:10.1111/ssqu.12594
    [BibTeX]
    @article{zhao-2019,
author = {Yikai Zhao},
title = {Testing the Measurement Invariance of Nativism},
journal = {Social Science Quarterly},
year = {2019},
volume = {100},
number = {2},
pages = {419--429},
doi = {10.1111/ssqu.12594},
}

  • van Kessel, Stijn, Javier Sajuria, and Steven Van M. Hauwaert. “Informed, Uninformed Or Misinformed? A Cross-national Analysis of Populist Party Supporters Across European Democracies.” West European Politics online first (2020). doi:10.1080/01402382.2019.1700448
    [BibTeX]
    @article{kessel-sajuria-hauwaert-2020,
author = {Stijn {van Kessel} and Javier Sajuria and Steven M. Van Hauwaert},
title = {Informed, Uninformed Or Misinformed? A Cross-national Analysis of Populist Party Supporters Across European Democracies},
journal = {West European Politics},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1080/01402382.2019.1700448},
}

The 10 most popular posts on this blog in 2019

 Political Science, Politics  1 Response »
Dec 202019
 
The 10 most popular posts on this blog in 2019 3

Yet another end-of-year post

It’s that time of the year again. No, I’m not talking about mindless consumerism, pointless over-indulgence and the Great Starbucks War on Christmas. What I’m talking about is my yearly reflection on why I still solo blog in <insert year>, and which posts were the least unpopular. To which the answer is not so easy. With today’s infrastructure, server logs have become meaningless. Google analytics is an Orwellian nightmare for both my few readers and me. Which leaves the humble wordpress tracking code: yet another data protection scare, but less high-profile. And so, without further ado, here comes this blog’s top ten for 2019.

The contenders

#10 Conceptual confusion is kinda ok

How the Extreme Right became the Radical Right - kai arzheimer
How the Extreme Right became the Radical Right - kai arzheimer

What (is) right? These days, the (Populist) Radical Right is all the rage. But when I started out as a young Padawan an unspecified number of decades ago, we were working on the Extreme Right as a matter of course. A few years down the line, a dear co-author asked me whether we should switch [...]

kai arzheimer kai arzheimer

This post, written a year ago, demonstrates how research on the Extreme Right became research on the Radical Right without missing a beat. I know, it’s a bit meta.

#9 Regional support for the “Alternative for Germany” varies wildly

Regional support for the
Regional support for the "Alternative for Germany" varies wildly - kai arzheimer

The AfD was founded near Germany’s financial centre of gravity (Frankfort) by members of the old western elites. But early on, the eastern states of Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia became important for the further development of the party. It was here, during the 2014 state election season, that the AfD began to toy (very reluctantly [...]

kai arzheimer kai arzheimer

A short post with maps that summarises some of my recent work on the geography of the radical right vote in Germany.

#8 Conference Posters with beamerposter

Quick and Fancy Conference Posters with beamer/beamerposter - kai arzheimer
Quick and Fancy Conference Posters with beamer/beamerposter - kai arzheimer

My default for writing anything that is longer than a page is LaTeX  (possibly via org-mode, if it is short and simple). In fact, the bond that ties me to the LaTeX/Emacs combo is so strong that I want to use it even for texts that are exactly one page long, i.e. conference posters. CTAN [...]

kai arzheimer kai arzheimer

Do you need a conference poster, fast? Do you love \LaTeX? This post may be old (it is from 2011), but people still find it useful.

#7 A new putsch in the AfD

The AfD splits again. This is why you should care. Perhaps - kai arzheimer
The AfD splits again. This is why you should care. Perhaps - kai arzheimer

Andre Poggenburg, the AfD's former leader in Saxony-Anhalt, has left the party and setup his own "Awakening of German Patriots" outfit

kai arzheimer kai arzheimer

Almost a year ago, a third reasonably prominent politician (though not a former leader) left the AfD to set up their own shop. As we now no, he failed, utterly, but it’s still a cautionary tale.

#6 AfD leader Gauland speaks at the New Right “winter school”

Schnellroda: AfD leader Gauland speaks at the New Right
Schnellroda: AfD leader Gauland speaks at the New Right "winter school" - kai arzheimer

Alexander Gauland, the leader of the AfD, is the keynote speaker at a notorious far-right conference in Schnellroda, organised by Götz Kubitschek

kai arzheimer kai arzheimer

The leader of the biggest opposition party in the Bundestag gave the keynote at an institution that aims to educate the future extreme right elite. That is quite something. And because all this list is super self-indulgent anyway, I’m also reposting the video I made about it

Alexander Gauland, co-leader of the AfD, headlines a far-right "winter school"

Watch this video on YouTube.

#5 How the tidyverse changed my view of R

How the tidyverse changed my view of #rstats - kai arzheimer
How the tidyverse changed my view of #rstats - kai arzheimer

Back in the mist of time, when I should have been was working on my PhD, I found a blue book on the shelf that a previous occupant of the office had left there. As I learned later, it was The Blue Book that introduced the S language, the predecessor of R. I got sidetracked [...]

kai arzheimer kai arzheimer

A short-ish post about R with the tidyverse is slightly and pleasantly different from grandpa’s R (i.e. the R of my PhD days). I guess people liked the post because of the memes.

#4 The March 2019 update of the Extreme Right Bibliography

New far right research: March 2019 update of the bibliography - kai arzheimer
New far right research: March 2019 update of the bibliography - kai arzheimer

the latest in far right research - March 2019 update of the bibliography on the extreme / radical right in Western Europe

kai arzheimer kai arzheimer

I maintain this slightly obsessive bibliography on the Far/Radical/Extreme Right and their voters. The March 2019 update was a big one, which attracted some attention from fellow nerds.

#3 nlcom and the delta method

nlcom and the Delta Method - kai arzheimer
nlcom and the Delta Method - kai arzheimer

Stata's procedure nlcom is a powerful implementation of the delta method, which approximates the expectation of some function of a random variable

kai arzheimer

This post from 2013 is an evergreen, because Stata’s implementation of the delta method (still) rocks.

#2 The regional elections in eastern Germany

The regional elections in eastern Germany: 9 quick hits - kai arzheimer
The regional elections in eastern Germany: 9 quick hits - kai arzheimer

Today’s elections in Brandenburg & Saxony are sending a new set of shock waves through German politics. Here are some quick thoughts. The AfD polled about 28 per cent in Saxony, their best result yet. Saxony is truly the AfD’s heartland. The AfD did also well in Brandenburg. In both states, they are led and [...]

kai arzheimer kai arzheimer

Everyone with the slightest interest in German politics was watching the 2019 state elections in the east. Here is/was my five-minute analysis of what was going down.

#1 The state election in Thuringia

5 quick hits on the state election in Thuringia - kai arzheimer
5 quick hits on the state election in Thuringia - kai arzheimer

1. Everyone is talking about the AfD, but the real story of this election is the Left2. Single-digit SPD results are almost normal now3. Germany is not yet the Netherlands, but we are getting there.4. The Green Wave has not reached Thuringia5. The most extreme flavour of the AfD remains popular in the (south-)east

kai arzheimer kai arzheimer

This eastern state election made quite a splash, what with the collapse of the SPD, the rise of the AfD, and the underwhelming result for the Greens. Given the size and importance of Thuringia for the great scheme of things, the post attracted disproportionate interest. I blame twitter.

Coda

I find it hard to believe, but I’ve written almost 80 posts this year, which is well above my yearly average. Most of them are just short throw away things (“Look, I was misquoted by some university radio station in Bosnia!”). Others are more substantial, and some reach a rise up to a length, sophistication, and dullness that I should reserve for my best proper academic writing. I have no idea why I’m still doing this, but while I’m still doing this, people might as well read it, so share a post or two, will you?

A vast majority of Germans sees the AfD as a right-wing extremist party

 Political Science, Politics  19 Responses »
Nov 292019
 
A vast majority of Germans sees the AfD as a right-wing extremist party

For the radical right in Europe, Alternative for Germany is an increasingly unusual case

In a recent paper published in JCMS, I argue that unlike other German far-right parties, the “Alternative for Germany party” (AfD) managed to avoid being associated with Nazism. The strong presence of establishment figures that previously were (or could have been) members of centre-right parties acted as what Elisabeth Ivarsflaten has once called a “reputational shield“. Without such a shield, a party will be branded “fringe” or extremist, and many voters will be reluctant to support it. Also, such parties will find it difficult to recruit competent and presentable would-be politicians – an argument that David Art makes and illustrates in his fabulous study of radical right party activists.

A vast majority of Germans sees the AfD as a right-wing extremist party 4

In the JCMS paper, I also look at the trajectory of the Alternative for Germany. The AfD started out as a socially conservative/market radical “professors’ party”, then, within just two years, developed into a (mostly) bog-standard Western European radical right party. What sets the “Alternative” apart from similar parties in Western Europe, however, is its desperate flirt with traditional German right-wing extremism.

Back to the future?

The Front National (now the Rassemblement) recently expelled its founder and long-time leader Jean-Marie Le Pen because the old man would not stop talking about the Holocaust. The Sweden Democrats gave up the uniforms, then had a real purge of the old guard. Other parties like the PVV never had any connection to the old inter-war Extreme Right. And this looked like the way forward for the last couple of decades or so.

In the AfD, regional leader Björn Höcke can publicly trot out racist tropes, attack the culture of remembrance and use rhetoric and ideas straight from the 1930s playbook without getting as much as a slap on the wrist. Regional leader Andreas Kalbitz was a member of various right-wing extremist groups and the former “Republican” party. Kalbitz also attended a Greek Neo-Nazi rally in Athens and a festival for Fascists and Neo-Nazis in Belgium. Not a problem. National leader Alexander Gauland, who infamously called the rule of the Nazis “a spot of bird shit” in an otherwise glorious history, thinks that Höcke is “right in the middle” of the party, and that Kalbitz is a “good man”.

 

80 per cent of Germans are suspicious of the AfD

In the JCMS paper, I suggest that this trajectory, which is fueled by electoral successes in the East and intra-party outbidding for the most outrageous positions, could not just bring legal problems (the offices for the protection of the constitution seem to be set to heighten their scrutiny of the AfD) but also undermine its electoral appeal in the medium term. Lo and behold: in a (very rare) instance of not being completely out of touch with reality, I may have gauged the public mood just right. Today’s Politbarometer poll asked citizens how far right-wing extremist ideas have spread within the AfD. A cool 41 per cent said “far”, and further 39 per cent said “very far”. For comparison, 15 per cent thought these ideas have spread “not very far”, and just two (two!) per cent said that right-wing extremism within the party did not exist. In other words: 80 per cent see Alternative for Germany as a right-wing extremist party.

80 per cent believe right-wing extremists are have spread far or very far within the Alternative for Germany

This dovetails neatly with slightly older polls which show that notwithstanding its national electoral support of 10 to 15 per cent, the AfD is by far the least popular party in Germany. About 80 per cent of voters would never consider voting for them. So far, the main result of the AfD’s ongoing radicalisation is not a collapse of its support, but rather a segmentation of the German party system. If you want to see the future of Germany, look to Flanders (minus the excellent fatty food, the quirky beers, and, well minus Belgium).

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