The Extreme Right (or Radical Right, New Right, Populist Right) is one of my main research interests. Here is a collection of blog posts on the Extreme Right (i.e. parties, voters, policies) that I have written over the years. If this is relevant for you, you might also be interested in the 900+ titles bibliography on the Extreme Right that I maintain and in this page, which summarises much of my work on the Extreme Right.
Germany’s far-right group PEGIDA is mobilizing weekly ‘virtual marches’ livestreamed on YouTube. PEGIDA demonstration in Dresden December 16, 2018 | Derbrauni / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
On a Monday evening in early April 2020, around 1,000 users are waiting for a YouTube livestream, ho…
I’m currently working on a paper that looks into the role that Germany’s eastern states (aka “the new Länder”, the ex-GDR …) played for the breakthrough and the consolidation of the “Alternative for Germany” party. This figure shows support for the AfD from 2013 to 2020.
The graph is a teeny-weeny bit busy, so here is the extended legend 👉 Circles are results from state (Länder elections), labelled with state codes. Squares are Bundestag, diamonds are European parliamentary elections. Filled symbols represent eastern Länder, or partial results for the eastern states only (Bundestag and EP elections). Hollow symbols represent the western states/partial western results. The blue line is the (locally smoothed) average over about 200 national elections polls from the Politbarometer (FGW) and Deutschlandtrend (Infratest-dimap) series. There are four main observations.
Source: official results; Politbarometer & Deutschlandtrend polls
Not exactly a new finding, but the AfD does much better in the east than in the west. In fact, so much better that some observers see the party as specifically eastern problem. This is not correct, but the difference is striking. Even in the 2013 Bundestag election (when the AfD campaigned as a soft-eurosceptic, “liberal-conservative” outfit), the party was clearly more popular in the east. Possible reasons: fewer partisans, lower levels of institutional trust, more xenophobia.
Almost exactly 5 years ago, the AfD was almost falling apart (also see just about every other of my blog posts from that period). Support for the party fell below 5 per cent (also see the section after the next), prominent members threatened to leave or simply went. The FAZ called them, in their professional journalistic assessment, “a laughing stock”. Radically transformed (see what I did here?), the party bounced back in 2016, but during this period, their only full-time politicians with access to funding and the media (apart from two remaining MEPs) were about 30 state-level MPs who had won seats in the 2014 series of elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia – incidentally on platforms that presaged the AfD’s trajectory towards the Radical Right.
What role did Germany's eastern states play for the breakthrough & consolidation of the #AfD? 4 observations: vote share consistently 2-3 times higher; party might not have survived 2015 w/o east, until 2017, eastern (state) MPs outnumbered western by large margin. pic.twitter.com/8Iv7BfoZf9
— Kai Arzheimer 🇪🇺 (@kai_arzheimer) May 28, 2020
It’s not directly visible in the graph, but: the higher vote share in the east (combined with the electoral calendar, the relatively large number of eastern states, and the disproportionate size of small-state legislatures) meant that until the Bundestag election in September 2017, there were twice as many AfD (state) MPs in the east. Although the east has just over one fifth of the population and about the quarter of the AfD members, a large chunk of the party elite was recruited (though not necessarily born) in the east. Even after the 2017 election, about half of the MPs (state and federal) were eastern.
Journalists love a good story, and they like to link the AfD’s current underwhelming performance in the polls to the fact that people are weary of populists in a crisis, and the AfD’s mixed messages on COVID. But it is also clear that the AfD’s support in national polls peaked in 2018. The declining salience of immigration and the revelations on right-wing extremists within and around the AfD have not exactly helped. Support for the party has ebbed and flowed before, and local polynomial regression by design tends to exaggerate trends at the margins of a plot, but it is clear that support began to fall months before Corona became the dominant issue in Germany and elsewhere.
Die Umfragewerte der AfD sind vergleichsweise schlecht, in der Corona-Krise ist die Partei kein relevanter Akteur. Die Gründe dafür sind nicht ganz neu. Mit dem Kurier aus Wien habe ich über die strukturellen Probleme der Partei gesprochen.
Das Handelsblatt hat mit Politikern und Politikwissenschaftlern über den Ausschluss von Andreas Kalbitz aus der AfD gesprochen.
www.handelsblatt.com
Last weekend, thousands of Germans took to the streets to protest against the anti-Corona policies. The scenes were quite extraordinary and were widely reported in German and in international media, not least because the rallies were attended by far-right actors and conspiracy theorists.
The good folks at Handelsblatt interviewed some colleagues and me, and someone on the other side of the channel asked me to translate my part. For what it’s worth, here it is 👇
“What do you make of the ”new“ disaffection with the government’s COVID-19 policies and the anti-lockdown protests?”
First, a degree of disaffection is perfectly understandable. Also, critiquing the government is part of returning to normality. However, if you look a bit closer, many of the actors involved in the recent protests are part of the radical right or even belong to outright right-wing extremist groups. Like they did with the 2014 “vigils for peace” movement, far right groups are trying to build an alliance with their opponents at the opposite end of political spectrum, not least by appealing to the legacy of the peaceful revolution in the GDR. Well-known merchants of conspiracy theories and esoterics are also part of the package.
“Will the AfD [the major radical right party in Germany] benefit from this? Is this the beginning of a new political movement, comparable to the 2014/15 vigils or the anti-asylum demonstration in 2015/16?”
The 2014/15 cross-spectrum alliance never really took off in terms of popular support. The 2015 anti-asylum protests, on the other hand, were part of the bigger far right movement that had existed for decades. The AfD has been building bridges to this movement since 2015 and, insofar, is already benefiting from it. At the moment, I don’t think that there is much additional potential that they could tap into.
“What is the implication of this for the wider German society, and how should politicians respond?”
It was always clear that the rally ’round the flag effect would not last for ever. A return of dissent and (partisan) conflict over the right strategy and measures was to be expected, and is also necessary for a liberal democracy.
But these demonstrations are only a small and by no means the most significant part of this conflict. For various reasons, they attract a lot of media attention: people openly break the rules on social distancing, there is not much else to report about, and some of the claims and slogans are really out of this world. But actors within parties, civil society, and the media should think long and hard if these demonstrators are really suitable allies for them, and whether they should be paid much attention at all.
A year ago, Sofia Porcarelli, a student at Occidental College, approached me because she was making a documentary movie about the far right in Germany. That’s way more interesting than a plain old thesis, right? Right. So I was very happy to be interviewed as one of her sources.
Today, I’m even happier to report that Sofia has shared the final product on youtube. Very chuffed, obviously.
The Eclectic, Erratic Bibliography on the Extreme Right (in (Western) Europe)™ is a collection of references on far right parties & their voters. Most of the titles fall in to the field of Political Science (broadly defined), but some contributions from related disciplines (most notably sociology, psychology, and economy) are included, too. You a free to browse the bibliography, download it (most reference software can import this format), curse it – whatever floats your boat. If you are aware of any titles that should be in the bibliography, please send me the reference (and the PDF if you have it).
Since November 2019, I have added 49 new titles to the bibliography. This brings the total number of entries to 955. Most of the new titles are fairly recent and were only published in the last couple of years or so.
| Publication year | n |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 28 |
| 2020 | 17 |
| 2018 | 2 |
| 2013 | 1 |
| 2017 | 1 |
This contributes to an interesting phenomenon: almost 20 per cent of the titles in the bibliography (which has existed in one form or another for more than two decades) were published after 2017. I might get better at spotting stuff, people might be more willing to send me pointers to their work, or (this my hunch) the literature is exploding.
Almost all (48) of them are articles that were published in (peer-reviewed) journals. This is in line with the bibliography’s existing bias towards articles: since the early 2000s, articles are outpacing any other type of publication.
I’m not sure if this reflects my personal reading habits or a more general shift in publication practices. Here are the outlets in which the 48 articles were published. Again, this is broadly in line with past patterns.
| Journal | n |
|---|---|
| European Journal of Political Research | 4 |
| Party Politics | 4 |
| Political Psychology | 4 |
| West European Politics | 4 |
| Nations and Nationalism | 3 |
| Social Science Quarterly | 3 |
| Electoral Studies | 2 |
| Journal of European Public Policy | 2 |
| Politics | 2 |
| Politische Vierteljahresschrift | 2 |
| Comparative European Politics | 1 |
| Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences | 1 |
| European Journal of Personality | 1 |
| European Political Science | 1 |
| French Politics | 1 |
| German Politics | 1 |
| Government and Opposition | 1 |
| International Journal of Public Opinion Research | 1 |
| Journal of Democracy | 1 |
| Patterns of Prejudice | 1 |
| Polish Political Science Review | 1 |
| Political Analysis | 1 |
| Political Behavior | 1 |
| Political Geography | 1 |
| Political Studies | 1 |
| Scandinavian Political Studies | 1 |
| SSRN Electronic Journal | 1 |
| The British Journal of Politics and International Relations | 1 |
I made a quick word cloud from the titles and abstracts. Click on the image for a bigger and mildly interactive version. Like in previous updates, the adjective “radical” stands out, whereas “extreme” and is mentioned only once. This neatly reflects the influence of Cas Mudde’s typology, but also the realities of West European party politics, where openly anti-democratic ideas are not popular with voters.
Click on the image to open a bigger and slightly more interactive version in a new tab
Populist(s) and populism are just as, well, popular. The same goes for party/parties. Some stemming would have made this more easily visible, but stems look really ugly in a word cloud (“the pie chart of text analysis” – I know). Europe, western, support, voting, immigration, and national are runners up. Pie chart or not, this makes it clear that the new entries contribute to the bibliography’s existing focus/bias (delete as appropriate) on .
Last time ’round, the answer to that question was a resounding and depressing “Michael”. This time, it is an equally resounding/depressing “Christian”.
Only 29 of the 104 unique authors of the new crop are female, which amounts to 28 per cent. This has been bugging me for a long time, so I decided to have a look at the bigger picture, i.e. the 1990-2020 period that includes 97 per cent of all titles.
Because the number of authors is large, I used an algorithm that relies on US Social Security Administration baby name data to assign gender probabilities to names. This is not perfect and tends to overestimate the share of female authors, at least in a largely European context (looking at you, Andrea, Nicola, Matti, and even Reinhold (?)). I also decided to count each publication in which an author was involved in a given year as a case, i.e. I factored in the number of publications.
The share varies considerably from year to year, so I added a lowess smoother. The results suggests a very slow but appreciable upward trend. However, the data also show that there was a period in the late 1990s/early 2000s, when the share of female authors was higher than it was over the last decade or so. This resonates with Sarah de Lange’s description of a worrying development in the field. So, if you are female, please send me your work on right-wing radicalism. The men do it. All. The. Time.
These are all the new titles in their full glory. Click here to download/import them into your reference manager software.
@article{allen-2017b,
author = {Trevor J. Allen},
title = {Exit To the Right? Comparing Far Right Voters and Abstainers in Western Europe},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
year = {2017},
volume = {50},
pages = {103--115},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2017.09.012},
}@article{bernhard-kriesi-2019,
author = {Laurent Bernhard and Hanspeter Kriesi},
title = {Populism in Election Times: a Comparative Analysis of 11 Countries in Western Europe},
journal = {West European Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {42},
number = {6},
pages = {1188--1208},
doi = {10.1080/01402382.2019.1596694},
}@article{bolet-2020,
author = {Diane Bolet},
title = {Local Labour Market Competition and Radical Right Voting: Evidence From France},
journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12378},
}@article{bolin-aylott-2019,
author = {Niklas Bolin and Nicholas Aylott},
title = {Right-wing Populist Party Leadership in Sweden : One of a Kind Or One of the Crowd?},
journal = {Polish Political Science Review},
year = {2019},
volume = {7},
number = {1},
pages = {24--40},
doi = {10.2478/ppsr-2019-0002},
}@article{bos-schemer-corbu-hameleers-andreadis-schulz-schmuck-reinemann-fawzi-2020,
author = {Linda Bos and Christian Schemer and Nicoleta Corbu and Michael Hameleers and Ioannis Andreadis and Anne Schulz and Desir\'{e}e Schmuck and Carsten Reinemann and Nayla Fawzi},
title = {The Effects of Populism as a Social Identity Frame on Persuasion and Mobilisation: Evidence From a 15-country Experiment},
journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
year = {2020},
volume = {59},
number = {1},
pages = {3--24},
doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12334},
}@book{bustikova-2019,
author = {Lenka Bustikova},
title = {Extreme Reactions: Radical Right Mobilization in Eastern Europe},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
year = {2019},
address = {Cambridge},
}@article{bustikova-siroky-alashri-alzahrani-2020,
author = {Lenka Bustikova and David S. Siroky and Saud Alashri and Sultan Alzahrani},
title = {Predicting Partisan Responsiveness: A Probabilistic Text Mining Time-Series Approach},
journal = {Political Analysis},
year = {2020},
volume = {28},
number = {1},
pages = {47--64},
doi = {10.1017/pan.2019.18},
}@article{coffe-2019,
author = {Hilde Coff{\a'e}},
title = {Gender, gendered personality traits and radical right populist voting},
journal = {Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {39},
number = {2},
pages = {170--185},
doi = {10.1177/0263395717745476},
}@article{dalimonte-2019,
author = {Roberto D'Alimonte},
title = {How the Populists Won in Italy.},
journal = {Journal of Democracy},
year = {2019},
volume = {30},
number = {1},
pages = {114--127},
}@article{davis-goidel-lipsmeyer-whitten-young-2019,
author = {Nicholas T. Davis and Kirby Goidel and Christine S. Lipsmeyer and Guy D. Whitten and Clifford Young},
title = {Economic Vulnerability, Cultural Decline, and Nativism: Contingent and Indirect Effects},
journal = {Social Science Quarterly},
year = {2019},
volume = {100},
number = {2},
pages = {430--446},
doi = {10.1111/ssqu.12591},
}@article{davis-goidel-lipsmeyer-whitten-young-2019b,
author = {Nicholas T. Davis and Kirby Goidel and Christine S. Lipsmeyer and Guy D. Whitten and Clifford Young},
title = {The Political Consequences of Nativism: The Impact of Nativist Sentiment on Party Support*},
journal = {Social Science Quarterly},
year = {2019},
volume = {100},
number = {2},
pages = {466--479},
doi = {10.1111/ssqu.12596},
}@article{down-han-2019,
author = {Ian Down and Kyung Joon Han},
title = {Marginalisation Or Legitimation? Mainstream Party Positioning on Immigration and Support for Radical Right Parties},
journal = {West European Politics},
year = {2019},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1080/01402382.2019.1674055},
}@article{engler-weisstanner-2020,
author = {Sarah Engler and David Weisstanner},
title = {The Threat of Social Decline: Income Inequality and Radical Right Support},
journal = {Journal of European Public Policy},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1080/13501763.2020.1733636},
}@article{evans-mellon-2019,
author = {Geoffrey Evans and Jonathan Mellon},
title = {Immigration, Euroscepticism, and the rise and fall of UKIP},
journal = {Party Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {25},
number = {1},
pages = {76--87},
doi = {10.1177/1354068818816969},
}@article{green-pedersen-otjes-2019,
author = {Christoffer Green-Pedersen and Simon Otjes},
title = {A hot topic? Immigration on the agenda in Western Europe},
journal = {Party Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {25},
number = {3},
pages = {424--434},
doi = {10.1177/1354068817728211},
}@article{gruendl-aichholzer-2020,
author = {Johann Gr{\"u}ndl and Julian Aichholzer},
title = {Support for the Populist Radical Right: Between Uncertainty Avoidance and Risky Choice},
journal = {Political Psychology},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1111/pops.12643},
}@article{halikiopoulou-vlandas-2019,
author = {Daphne Halikiopoulou and Tim Vlandas},
title = {What Is New and What Is Nationalist About Europe's New Nationalism? Explaining the Rise of the Far Right in Europe},
journal = {Nations and Nationalism},
year = {2019},
volume = {25},
number = {2},
pages = {409--434},
doi = {10.1111/nana.12515},
}@article{haugsgjerd-2019,
author = {Atle Haugsgjerd},
title = {Moderation or radicalisation? How executive power affects right-wing populists' satisfaction with democracy},
journal = {Electoral Studies},
year = {2019},
volume = {57},
pages = {31--45},
doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2018.09.008},
}@article{hauwaert-2018b,
author = {Steven M. Van Hauwaert},
title = {On Far Right Parties, Master Frames and Trans-National Diffusion: Understanding Far Right Party Development in Western Europe},
journal = {Comparative European Politics},
year = {2018},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1057/s41295-017-0112-z},
}@article{hauwaert-schimpf-azevedo-2020,
author = {Steven M. Van Hauwaert and Christian H. Schimpf and Flavio Azevedo},
title = {The Measurement of Populist Attitudes: Testing Cross-national Scales Using Item Response Theory},
journal = {Politics},
year = {2020},
volume = {40},
number = {1},
pages = {3--21},
doi = {10.1177/0263395719859306},
}@article{heinisch-saxonberg-werner-habersack-2019,
author = {Reinhard Heinisch and Steven Saxonberg and Annika Werner and Fabian Habersack},
title = {The effect of radical right fringe parties on main parties in Central and Eastern Europe: Empirical evidence from manifesto data},
journal = {Party Politics},
year = {2019},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1177/1354068819863620},
}@article{hutchins-halikiopoulou-2020,
author = {Rachel D. Hutchins and Daphne Halikiopoulou},
title = {Enemies of Liberty? Nationalism, Immigration, and the Framing of Terrorism in the Agenda of the Front National},
journal = {Nations and Nationalism},
year = {2020},
volume = {26},
number = {1},
pages = {67--84},
doi = {10.1111/nana.12555},
}@article{jacobs-spanje-2019,
author = {Laura Jacobs and Joost {van Spanje}},
title = {Martyrs for Free Speech? Disentangling the Effects of Legal Prosecution of Anti-immigration Politicians on their Electoral Support},
journal = {Political Behavior},
year = {2019},
doi = {10.1007/s11109-019-09581-6},
}@article{jylhae-rydgren-strimling-2019,
author = {Kirsti M. Jylh{\"a} and Jens Rydgren and Pontus Strimling},
title = {Radical Right-wing Voters From Right and Left: Comparing Sweden Democrat Voters Who Previously Voted for the Conservative Party Or the Social Democratic Party},
journal = {Scandinavian Political Studies},
year = {2019},
volume = {42},
number = {3-4},
pages = {220--244},
doi = {10.1111/1467-9477.12147},
}@article{kende-kreko-2020,
author = {Anna Kende and P{\a'e}ter Krek{\a'o}},
title = {Xenophobia, Prejudice, and Right-wing Populism in East-central Europe},
journal = {Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences},
year = {2020},
volume = {34},
pages = {29--33},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2019.11.011},
}@article{kessel-chelotti-drake-roch-rodi-2020,
author = {Stijn {van Kessel} and Nicola Chelotti and Helen Drake and Juan Roch and Patricia Rodi},
title = {Eager To Leave? Populist Radical Right Parties’ Responses To the UK's Brexit Vote},
journal = {The British Journal of Politics and International Relations},
year = {2020},
volume = {22},
number = {1},
pages = {65--84},
doi = {10.1177/1369148119886213},
}@article{lancaster-2019,
author = {Caroline Marie Lancaster},
title = {Not So Radical After All: Ideological Diversity Among Radical Right Supporters and Its Implications},
journal = {Political Studies},
year = {2019},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1177/0032321719870468},
}@article{lubbers-2019,
author = {Marcel Lubbers},
title = {What kind of nationalism sets the radical right and its electorate apart from the rest? Pride in the nation's history as part of nationalist nostalgia},
journal = {Nations and Nationalism},
year = {2019},
volume = {25},
number = {2},
pages = {449--466},
doi = {10.1111/nana.12517},
}@article{martin-2019,
author = {Christian W. Martin},
title = {Electoral Participation and Right Wing Authoritarian Success – Evidence from the 2017 Federal Elections in Germany},
journal = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift},
year = {2019},
volume = {60},
number = {2},
pages = {245--271},
}@article{mayer-berning-johann-2020,
author = {Sabrina J. Mayer and Carl C. Berning and David Johann},
title = {The Two Dimensions of Narcissistic Personality and Support for the Radical Right: The Role of Right-wing Authoritarianism, Social Dominance Orientation and Anti-immigrant Sentiment},
journal = {European Journal of Personality},
year = {2020},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1002/per.2228},
}@article{nijs-stark-verkuyten-2019,
author = {Tom Nijs and Tobias H. Stark and Maykel Verkuyten},
title = {Negative Intergroup Contact and Radical Right-Wing Voting: The Moderating Roles of Personal and Collective Self-Efficacy},
journal = {Political Psychology},
year = {2019},
volume = {40},
number = {5},
pages = {1057--1073},
doi = {10.1111/pops.12577},
}@article{pytlas-2013,
author = {Bartek Pytlas},
title = {Radical-right Narratives in Slovakia and Hungary: Historical Legacies, Mythic Overlaying and Contemporary Politics},
journal = {Patterns of Prejudice},
year = {2013},
volume = {47},
number = {2},
pages = {162--183},
doi = {10.1080/0031322X.2013.786199},
}@article{rathgeb-2020,
author = {Philip Rathgeb},
title = {Makers Against Takers: the Socio-economic Ideology and Policy of the Austrian Freedom Party},
journal = {West European Politics},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1080/01402382.2020.1720400},
}@article{rothmund-bromme-azevedo-2020,
author = {Tobias Rothmund and Laurits Bromme and Fl{\a'a}vio Azevedo},
title = {Justice for the People? How Justice Sensitivity Can Foster and Impair Support for Populist Radical-Right Parties and Politicians in the United States and in Germany},
journal = {Political Psychology},
year = {2020},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1111/pops.12632},
}@article{rovny-polk-2019,
author = {Jan Rovny and Jonathan Polk},
title = {Still Blurry? Economic Salience, Position and Voting for Radical Right Parties in Western Europe},
journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
year = {2019},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12356},
}@article{schaub-morisi-2020,
author = {Max Schaub and Davide Morisi},
title = {Voter Mobilisation in the Echo Chamber: Broadband Internet and the Rise of Populism in Europe},
journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
year = {2020},
volume = {online first},
doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12373},
}@article{schmuck-matthes-2019,
author = {Desir\'{e}e Schmuck and J{\"o}rg Matthes},
title = {Voting {"}Against Islamization{"}? How Anti-Islamic Right-Wing, Populist Political Campaign Ads Influence Explicit and Implicit Attitudes Toward Muslims as Well as Voting Preferences},
journal = {Political Psychology},
year = {2019},
volume = {40},
number = {4},
pages = {739--757},
doi = {10.1111/pops.12557},
}@article{schulte-cloos-ruettenauer-2018,
author = {Julia Schulte-Cloos and Tobias R{\"u}ttenauer},
title = {A Transformation From Within? Dynamics of Party Activists and the Rise of the German Afd},
journal = {SSRN Electronic Journal},
year = {2018},
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3306183},
}@article{siegers-jedinger-2020,
author = {Pascal Siegers and Alexander Jedinger},
title = {Religious Immunity To Populism: Christian Religiosity and Public Support for the Alternative for Germany},
journal = {German Politics},
year = {2020},
pages = {online first},
doi = {10.1080/09644008.2020.1723002},
}@article{spoon-kluever-2020,
author = {Jae-Jae Spoon and Heike Kl{\"u}ver},
title = {Responding To Far Right Challengers: Does Accommodation Pay Off?},
journal = {Journal of European Public Policy},
year = {2020},
volume = {27},
number = {2},
pages = {273--291},
doi = {10.1080/13501763.2019.1701530},
}@article{stecker-debus-2019,
author = {Christian Stecker and Marc Debus},
title = {Refugees Welcome? Zum Einfluss der Flüchtlingsunterbringung auf den Wahlerfolg der AfD bei der Bundestagswahl 2017 in Bayern},
journal = {Politische Vierteljahresschrift},
year = {2019},
volume = {60},
number = {2},
pages = {299--323},
doi = {10.1007/s11615-019-00151-3},
}@article{stockemer-2019,
author = {Daniel Stockemer},
title = {What Is Right-Wing Populism and How Does It Manifest Itself? an Analysis of the French National Front's Facebook Posts and Sympathizers' Facebook Comments},
journal = {French Politics},
year = {2019},
volume = {17},
number = {3},
pages = {340--354},
doi = {10.1057/s41253-019-00082-w},
}@article{szoecsik-polyakova-2019,
author = {Edina Sz{\"o}csik and Alina Polyakova},
title = {Euroscepticism and the Electoral Success of the Far Right: the Role of the Strategic Interaction Between Center and Far Right},
journal = {European Political Science},
year = {2019},
volume = {18},
number = {3},
pages = {400--420},
doi = {10.1057/s41304-018-0162-y},
}@article{wettstein-schulz-steenbergen-schemer-mueller-wirz-wirth-2019,
author = {Martin Wettstein and Anne Schulz and Marco Steenbergen and Christian Schemer and Philipp M{\"u}ller and Dominique S. Wirz and Werner Wirth},
title = {Measuring Populism Across Nations: Testing for Measurement Invariance of an Inventory of Populist Attitudes},
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year = {2019},
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title = {Party Activism in the Populist Radical Right: the Case of the Uk Independence Party},
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year = {2019},
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doi = {10.1017/gov.2019.21},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
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volume = {100},
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}Shocking insight: the rise of the Radical Right is neither inevitable nor monotonic. Setbacks are real, and so is the rise of left-libertarian parties and the mainstreaming of views that were outragesously liberal just a couple of decades ago (c.f. views on same-sex marriage etc.). It’s a good thing that journalists (they still exist) start reporting on these facts. One of them was writing a nice, rounded article on recent setbacks for the Radical Right in Europe and asked for some input, and so a couple of quotes made it into the final product.
Back in the distant past of 2016, the rise of the AfD in Germany’s eastern states and the fragmentation of the party system began to force the formation of awkward coalitions. In Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD captured about a quarter of the vote and so brought together a ‘Kenya Coalition’ (CDU / SPD / Greens). As menages a trois go, it was not a happy arrangement, but somehow the coalition rumbled on. But the AfD remained a problem. Like in other eastern states, some in the CDU (mostly second and third tier politicians) would be much happier in a coalition with the radical right than with two left-ish parties. Many others and the federal CDU quite rightfully think that this would be political suicide. And so there was was the occasional wink-and-nod, and a lot of kerfuffle and shenanigans, but not much else.
While we were all obsessing about the UK General election, a scandal broke in the eastern periphery. Robert Möritz, a young and relatively recent member of the CDU turned out to be a member of ‘Uniter’, an association of former soldiers, and special forces and police officers that has been linked to the right-wing extremist ‘prepper’ scene. On closer inspection, it also emerged that Möritz was a steward at a neo-Nazi march, is a fan of neo-Nazi bands and sports a massive ‘black sun’ tattoo (a combination of swastikas, infamously linked to the SS) (if you read German or know how to run Google translate, here are all the gory details) 👇
All of this undisputed. Möritz apparently removed some posts from his accounts, claimed youthful innocence and said he had moved on. His local association said they were happy with that.
Not all news are good news
As far as I can tell, Möritz is a member of some advisory assembly at the very local level. It strikes me as unlikely that he has any juice within the CDU, or that anyone would think he was worth wasting political capital on. On the other hand, the potential political fallout is massive. The normal reaction would have been to investigate the matter, with a view to chugging the guy out (legally complicated but doable).But when the story broke, the state-level CDU leadership did not pull the plug. They were happy with the way the local guys had dealt with it, period. Incredulous silence all around, then the Greens piped up and asked, quite literally, ‘How many MORE swastikas do you have in your ranks’. Excellent question. To which the state leadership responded by … 🥁 … demanding an apology and threatening to end the coalition.Cue emergency delivery of mil-grade tranquillisers to CDU HQ back in Berlin and head-scratching all around. What is this all about? Internal CDU power struggle? Testing the waters? The state CDU forcing early elections or a year of minority government to warm up for the campaign? I have no idea. But this is how we in Germany spend the weekend after the day after the night before.
In a recent paper published in JCMS, I argue that unlike other German far-right parties, the “Alternative for Germany party” (AfD) managed to avoid being associated with Nazism. The strong presence of establishment figures that previously were (or could have been) members of centre-right parties acted as what Elisabeth Ivarsflaten has once called a “reputational shield“. Without such a shield, a party will be branded “fringe” or extremist, and many voters will be reluctant to support it. Also, such parties will find it difficult to recruit competent and presentable would-be politicians – an argument that David Art makes and illustrates in his fabulous study of radical right party activists.
In the JCMS paper, I also look at the trajectory of the Alternative for Germany. The AfD started out as a socially conservative/market radical “professors’ party”, then, within just two years, developed into a (mostly) bog-standard Western European radical right party. What sets the “Alternative” apart from similar parties in Western Europe, however, is its desperate flirt with traditional German right-wing extremism.
The Front National (now the Rassemblement) recently expelled its founder and long-time leader Jean-Marie Le Pen because the old man would not stop talking about the Holocaust. The Sweden Democrats gave up the uniforms, then had a real purge of the old guard. Other parties like the PVV never had any connection to the old inter-war Extreme Right. And this looked like the way forward for the last couple of decades or so.
Metropolico.org [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
In the JCMS paper, I suggest that this trajectory, which is fueled by electoral successes in the East and intra-party outbidding for the most outrageous positions, could not just bring legal problems (the offices for the protection of the constitution seem to be set to heighten their scrutiny of the AfD) but also undermine its electoral appeal in the medium term. Lo and behold: in a (very rare) instance of not being completely out of touch with reality, I may have gauged the public mood just right. Today’s Politbarometer poll asked citizens how far right-wing extremist ideas have spread within the AfD. A cool 41 per cent said “far”, and further 39 per cent said “very far”. For comparison, 15 per cent thought these ideas have spread “not very far”, and just two (two!) per cent said that right-wing extremism within the party did not exist. In other words: 80 per cent see Alternative for Germany as a right-wing extremist party.
This dovetails neatly with slightly older polls which show that notwithstanding its national electoral support of 10 to 15 per cent, the AfD is by far the least popular party in Germany. About 80 per cent of voters would never consider voting for them. So far, the main result of the AfD’s ongoing radicalisation is not a collapse of its support, but rather a segmentation of the German party system. If you want to see the future of Germany, look to Flanders (minus the excellent fatty food, the quirky beers, and, well minus Belgium).
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