Working paper: the east-west divide in support for Alternative for Germany & the Left in 2021
Here is a new working paper about the disproportionate success of the AfD and the Left in Germany’s eastern states
Tag: Left
Interview mit dem Handelsblatt: Thüringen, die AfD und die Zukunft der früheren Großparteien
Mit Dietmar Neuerer vom Handelsblatt habe ich ausführlich über die das Ergebnis der Thüringen-Wahl und die wahrscheinlichen Konsequenzen für die deutsche Politik gesprochen. In der Online-Ausgabe gibt es das Gespräch im vollen Wortlaut. [contentcards url="https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/interview-zur-thueringen-wahl-ungewoehnliche-mehr-parteien-koalitionen-werden-zur-normalitaet-werden/25160996.html" target="_blank"]
5 quick hits on the state election in Thuringia
LEFT 30.4% AfD 23.5% CDU 22.1% SPD 8.1% GREENS 5.1% FDP 5.1% Source: FGW projection, 8:10pm Why waste my life writing lengthy books that no-one is going to read? Why go through the pain of peer review? Why, in fact, wait for the actual election results to come in? So here is my list on…
Is there potential for anti-refugee left-wing populism in Germany?
In the last couple of weeks, much has been said and written about the turning tide in German public opinion on refugees, the growing rift between Merkel and the CSU, the potential of a back-bench rebellion against the chancellor and party leader etc. But one of the most interesting (in my book) details is buried…
Germany gets their first Minister-President of the Left
On Friday, the state parliament at Erfurt voted in Bodo Ramelow as Minister-President of Thuringia. He is the first member of the Left party to hold such an office, backed by the first ‘red-red-green’ (Left/SPD/Greens) coalition ever. 25 years after the fall of the wall, that is still a highly controversial constellation. Ramelow has been…
The Math of Post-Socialism
Much merriment in the Eastern state of Thuringia: 25 years after the fall of the wall, the Greens and the SPD in the state parliament are poised to form a coalition with the Left (die Linke), which would give the Left its first minister president ever. What’s the Matter with the Left? Predictably, this is…
German Bundestag Election: Six New Polls, Little Change
The Polls [caption id="attachment_12655" align="alignleft" width="300"] Support for the Major German Parties, Estimates and Predictions (Week 35, 2013)[/caption] Exactly three weeks before the 18th Bundestag election, it’s time for another look at the polls. This weekend brings six new entries: One late result from week 33 that was only published a week ago, three polls…
Nine New Polls Say Merkel Will Still Be Chancellor in October
Last week’s post on Merkel’s very good chances to win a third term created a bit of a stir. This week, I’m back with nine new polls (conducted between August 6 and August 19 by six different companies), which all point into the same direction: The probability of Merkel continuing as chancellor is 98 to 99 per cent.
New Publication: The Left, East vs West, and the 2009 Election
VS/Springer has just published the a massive volume on the 2009 Bundestag election. Our chapter looks (once more) into the differences between voters in the former Federal Republic and their eastern compatriots in the 2009 election. While these differences persist, we find that people in the West are also deviating from traditional patterns of voting behaviour. (In German)
Mapping local deviations from regional voting patterns in Germany
Political Science is the magpie amongst the social sciences, which borrows heavily from other disciplines. These days, many political scientists are actually failed economists (even more failed economists are actually economists, however). I used to think of myself as a failed sociologist, but reading the proofs it dawned on me that I might actually aspire to become a failed geographer.