The AfD and the East-West divide in German Politics

My old chums at Essex have kindly invited me back to the departmental seminar. This used to involve tricky questions, questions that were really comments, and (afterwards, as this is not Downing Street), wine, cheese, and good company. These days, we have Zoom, which is better than nothing, I suppose.

My talk was based on a paper. that addresses two related question: why is the AfD so strong in Germany’s eastern states, and what role did/does the east play for the party. Here are my slides:

And If you find this remotely interesting, you may also want to have a look at this related presentation.

SCoRE and the geography of radical right resentment in Germany

The good folks at Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin have invited me for a talk about our ORA project on subnational contexts and the Radical Right in general, and some findings on the German case in particular. Here, our research question is whether the striking spatial differences in voting behaviour (including but not limited to the disproportionate strength of the AfD in the eastern states) are just the result of sorting (people being selected and self-selecting into certain places), or whether we can find evidence of true contextual effects and spatial clustering. It is all still very much work in progress, but if you are interested, here are my slides.

The rise of right-wing populist and radical groups in Europe. Is history repeating itself?

Back in March 2018, the Montreal Holocaust Museum invited me to an expert panel that they were organising as part of their Action Week against Racism. The topic: the resurgence of aggressive right-wing politics in Europe. Speaking on this issue, at this institution, was both poignant and humbling. Here are my slides.

Deliberation does not reduce the gap between citizens’ and legislators’ ethical preferences

Deliberation does not reduce the gap between citizens’ and legislators’ ethical preferences 1

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This week, I had the opportunity to talk on the Nuffield Politics Seminar about my current project on citizens’s preferences on Pre-implantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD) and how they differ from what lawmakers decided. The feedback I got was amazing, though not always practical (“If you could go back in time and vary about 10 experimental conditions …”.

Here are the slides:

Gibt es eine europäische Wertegemeinschaft? Die Wertpräferenzen der Europäer, 2002-2010

Slides (in German) for a talk I gave at the University of Zurich on the idea of a European set of value priorities. While preferences are very similar across Europe, with universalism and benevolence coming out top and self-enhancement ranking low, security is crucial for the post-communist societies in Central & Eastern Europe. I further claim that this finding is not driven by economic disparities. This is an update to and extension of my chapter on the notion of a European community of shared values. Somewhat ironically, the preliminary results from the 2012 wave of the ESS were published on the day I gave that talk, so I should go back to the drawing board soon.

Local Heroes? Der Effekt räumlicher Distanz zwischen Wählern und Kandidaten bei der Unterhauswahl in England 2010″ (Bamberg Graduate School of Social Sciences)

Slides (in German) for my recent talk about our geolocation and voting project at the Bamberg Graduate School of Social Sciences. The presentation is based on

  • Arzheimer, Kai and Jocelyn Evans. “Geolocation and voting: candidate-voter distance effects on party choice in the 2010 General Election in England.” Political Geography 31.5 (2012): 301–310. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2012.04.006
    [BibTeX] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [HTML] [DATA]

    The effect of geographical distance between candidate and voter on vote likelihood in the UK is essentially untested. In systems where constituency representatives vie for local inhabitants’ support in elections, candidates living closer to a voter would be expected to have a greater probability of receiving that individual’s support, other things being equal. In this paper, we present a first test of this concept using constituency data (specifically, notice of poll address data) from the British General Election of 2010 and the British Election Survey, together with geographical data from Ordnance Survey and Royal Mail, to test the hypothesis that candidate distance matters in voters’ choice of candidate. Using a conditional logit model, we find that the distance between voter and candidates from the three main parties (Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat) matters in English constituencies, even when controlling for strong predictors of vote-choice, such as party feeling and incumbency advantage.

    @Article{arzheimer-evans-2012,
    author = {Arzheimer, Kai and Evans, Jocelyn},
    title = {Geolocation and voting: candidate-voter distance effects on party choice in the 2010 General Election in England},
    number = {5},
    volume = {31},
    abstract = {The effect of geographical distance between candidate and voter on vote likelihood in the UK is essentially untested. In systems where constituency representatives vie for local inhabitants' support in elections, candidates living closer to a voter would be expected to have a greater probability of receiving that individual's support, other things being equal. In this paper, we present a first test of this concept using constituency data (specifically, notice of poll address data) from the British General Election of 2010 and the British Election Survey, together with geographical data from Ordnance Survey and Royal Mail, to test the hypothesis that candidate distance matters in voters' choice of candidate. Using a conditional logit model, we find that the distance between voter and candidates from the three main parties (Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat) matters in English constituencies, even when controlling for strong predictors of vote-choice, such as party feeling and incumbency advantage.},
    journal = {Political Geography},
    year = 2012,
    doi = {10.1016/j.polgeo.2012.04.006},
    pages = {301--310},
    keywords = {uk, gis},
    html = {https://www.kai-arzheimer.com/paper/geolocation-voting-candidate-voter-distance-effects-party-choice-2010-general-election-england},
    data = {https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/PBCH00},
    url = {https://www.kai-arzheimer.com/arzheimer-evans-geolocation-vote-england.pdf}
    }

.
The full PDF for the presentation is here.

Working Class Heroes? Presentation on Competition between the Centre Left and the Extreme Right

These are the slides for my Oxford talk on competition between the Centre Left and the Extreme Right (aka Working Class Parties 2.0) for the working class vote in Western Europe. The presentation is based on

  • Arzheimer, Kai. “Working Class Parties 2.0? Competition between Centre Left and Extreme Right Parties.” Class Politics and the Radical Right. Ed. Rydren, Jens. London, New York: Routledge, 2013. 75–90.
    [BibTeX] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [HTML]

    The propensity of workers to vote for the Extreme Right has risen significantly. This “proletarisation”” is the result of the interplay between a long-term dealignment process and increasing worries amongst the European working classes about the immigration of cheap labour. As a result, Western European Centre Left parties may find themselves squeezed between the New Right on the one hand and the New Left on the other. There is no obvious strategy for dealing with this dilemma. Staying put will not win working class defectors back. Toughening up immigration policies is unpalatable for many party members, does not seem to make Social Democrats more attractive for working class voters, and might eventually alienate other social groups.

    @InCollection{arzheimer-2012c,
    author = {Arzheimer, Kai},
    title = {Working Class Parties 2.0? Competition between Centre Left and Extreme Right Parties},
    booktitle = {Class Politics and the Radical Right},
    publisher = {Routledge},
    year = 2013,
    pages = {75--90},
    keywords = {eurorex, cp},
    editor = {Rydren, Jens},
    abstract = {The propensity of workers to vote for the Extreme Right has risen significantly. This "proletarisation"" is the result of the interplay between a long-term dealignment process and increasing worries amongst the European working classes about the immigration of cheap labour. As a result, Western European Centre Left parties may find themselves squeezed between the New Right on the one hand and the New Left on the other. There is no obvious strategy for dealing with this dilemma. Staying put will not win working class defectors back. Toughening up immigration policies is unpalatable for many party members, does not seem to make Social Democrats more attractive for working class voters, and might eventually alienate other social groups.},
    url = {https://www.kai-arzheimer.com/working-class-parties-extreme-right.pdf},
    html = {https://www.kai-arzheimer.com/extreme-right-working-class-centre-left-competition/},
    address = {London, New York}
    }

The full PDF for the presentation is here.

Netzwerke in der Politikwissenschaft (Trier)

Vortrag am Forschungscluster “Ge­sell­schaft­li­che Ab­hän­gig­kei­ten und so­zia­le Netz­wer­ke” über Zitationsnetzwerke und Kollaborationsnetzwerke in der deutschen Politikwissenschaft.

Basiert auf

  • Arzheimer, Kai. “Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002.” American Journal of Political Science 53.2 (2009): 259-275. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00369.x
    [BibTeX] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [HTML]

    Research on the voters of the extreme right in Western Europe has become a minor industry, but relatively little attention has been paid to the twin question of why support for these parties is often unstable, and why the extreme right is so weak in many countries. Moreover, the findings from different studies often contradict each other. This article aims at providing a more comprehensive and satisfactory answer to this research problem by employing a broader database and a more adequate modeling strategy. The main finding is that while immigration and unemployment rates are important, their interaction with other political factors is much more complex than suggested by previous research. Moreover, persistent country effects prevail even if a whole host of individual and contextual variables is controlled for.

    @Article{arzheimer-2009,
    author = {Arzheimer, Kai},
    title = {Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe,
    1980--2002 },
    journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
    year = 2009,
    volume = 53,
    number = 2,
    doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5907.2009.00369.x},
    keywords = {cp, eurorex},
    html = {https://www.kai-arzheimer.com/contextual-factors-extreme-right-vote-western-europe-1980-2002},
    abstract = {Research on the voters of the extreme right in Western Europe has become a minor industry, but relatively little attention has been paid to the twin question of why support for these parties is often unstable, and why the extreme right is so weak in many countries. Moreover, the findings from different studies often contradict each other. This article aims at providing a more comprehensive and satisfactory answer to this research problem by employing a broader database and a more adequate modeling strategy. The main finding is that while immigration and unemployment rates are important, their interaction with other political factors is much more complex than suggested by previous research. Moreover, persistent country effects prevail even if a whole host of individual and contextual variables is controlled for. },
    url = {https://www.kai-arzheimer.com/contextual-factors-and-the-extreme-right-vote-in-western-europe-1980-2002.pdf},
    pages = {259-275}
    }

Electoral Sociology: Who votes for the Extreme Right – and when?

This is a presentation on the electoral sociology of the Extreme Right that I gave at an excellent short conference at Strasbourg. The full PDF is here: Who votes for the Extreme Right?

The presentation eventually resulted in this publication:

  • Arzheimer, Kai. “Electoral Sociology: Who Votes for the Extreme Right and Why – and When?.” The Extreme Right in Europe. Current Trends and Perspectives. Eds. Backes, Uwe and Patrick Moreau. Göttingen: Vendenhoeck & Ruprecht, 2012. 35-50.
    [BibTeX] [Download PDF] [HTML]
    @InCollection{arzheimer-2012d,
    author = {Arzheimer, Kai},
    title = {Electoral Sociology: Who Votes for the Extreme Right and Why - and When?},
    booktitle = {The Extreme Right in Europe. Current Trends and Perspectives},
    pages = {35-50},
    publisher = {Vendenhoeck \& Ruprecht},
    keywords = {eurorex, cp},
    year = 2012,
    editor = {Backes, Uwe and Moreau, Patrick},
    address = {G{\"o}ttingen},
    html = {https://www.kai-arzheimer.com/paper/electoral-sociology-who-votes-for-the-extreme-right-and-why-and-when/},
    url = {https://www.kai-arzheimer.com/arzheimer-extreme-right-review.pdf}
    }