German Constitutional Court Kills Electoral Threshold For European Elections

Feb 262014
 

What Did the Court Say?

The German Constitutional Court ruled today that Germany’s three per cent electoral threshold for European elections is unconstitutional because it violates the principle of equality. The ruling was not exactly a surprise: In 2011, the court had already abolished a five per cent electoral threshold on account of the European Union not being a parliamentary system that would require large and coherent parliamentary groups and stable majorities. The three per cent threshold was enacted only last October in a constitutional gamble. Lawmakers wanted to keep smaller parties out of the EP, although they were perfectly aware that the logic of the first ruling would probably rule out a lower threshold, too.

verhandlung uber das bundeswahlrecht vor dem bundesverfassungsgericht German Constitutional Court Kills Electoral Threshold For European Elections
Mehr Demokratie e.V. / Foter / CC BY-SA

What Are the Consequences?

The court has just made a bunch of smaller parties very happy. Germany has 99 seats in the EP, so without a legal threshold, the effective threshold is just over one per cent. The AfD is currently polling around six per cent, so unless something dramatic happens, the ruling virtually guarantees them representation in the next parliament. That would give the AfD  a parliamentary foothold that they will use to establish themselves firmly in the German polity.

Things also haven’t looked so good for the Pirates and the NPD in a long time. The latter case is particularly interesting: If the Constitutional Court should ban the NPD further down the line, their MPs would lose their seats under German law. Will this also apply to MEPs?

Germany’s AfD: What’s in a Eurosceptic Manifesto?

Feb 122014
 

Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD is expected to do well in the European Elections, at least by German standards: They are projected to clear the three per cent threshold, which would above all give them access to public funds and more PR opportunities.

After I called them ‘anti-European’ on public radio, upset party members have been in touch (and all over facebook) to inform me that they are ‘anti-EU’ (or rather against the EU in its present shape), but not against ‘Europe’ per se.  They even claimed that they are pro-European, in a fashion. Hm.

I duly decided to mend my ways and read their manifesto front to back, but as it turns out, there is neither a proper manifesto (again, by German standards) nor something specific to the EP2014. All they have on their website is the 14 pt/4 page document they had quickly drawn up just in time for the German general election that was held last September (a legal requirement for fielding lists).

Germanys AfD: Whats in a Eurosceptic Manifesto?

So I extracted  the text from this PDF and made a wordle from it  (incidentally, wordle.net suggested  typsetting the result in Fraktur, but I decided that would create a certain bias). As you can see, ‘fordern’ (demand) is the most frequent word, which results from the heavy use of litany in this short text. The second most important word is ‘Deutschland’. Euro and EU also feature, but they are on par with ‘Kinder’ (children) and ‘education’ (Bildung), issues over which ‘Europe’ has no jurisdiction.

This is not an artifact of the party’s name (which appears only twice in the text). ‘EU-/Eurosceptic’ they may be,  but this rather goes to show that the party seems very much concerned with Germany and German politics. Right now, different factions within the party – conservatives, liberals, whatnot – try to define what the AfD stands for. It will be interesting to see what future party documents will tell us about this struggle.

Embarrassing Parallelism: I Got 99 Problems, but a Core ain’t One

Jan 262014
 

R Package Parallel: How Not to Solve a Problem That Does Not Exist

Somewhat foolishly, my university has granted me access to Mogon: not the god, not the death metal band but rather their supercomputer, which currently holds the 182th spot in the top 500 list of the fastest computers on the planet. It has some 34,000+ cores and more than 80 TB of RAM, but basically it’s just a very large bunch of Linux boxes. That means that I have a rough idea how to handle it, and that it happily runs my native Linux Stata and MPlus (and hopefully Jags) binaries for me. It also has R installed, and this is where my misery began.

I have a lengthy R job that deals with census data. Basically, it looks up the absolute number of minority residents in some 25,000 output areas and their immediate neighbours and calculates a series of percentages from these figures. I think this could in principle be done in Stata, but R provides convenient libraries for dealing with geo-coded data (sp and friends), non-rectangular data structures and all the trappings of a full-featured programming language, so it would be stupid not to make use of it. The only problem is that R is relatively slow and single-threaded, and that my script is what they call embarrassingly parallel: The same trivial function is applied to 33 vectors with 25,000 elements each. Each calculation on a vector takes about eight seconds to complete, which amounts to roughly five minutes in total. Add the time it takes to read in the data and some fairly large lookup-tables (it would be very time-consuming to repeatedly calculate which output area is close enough to each other output area to be considered a neighbour), and we are looking at eight to ten minutes for one run.

mogon Embarrassing Parallelism: I Got 99 Problems, but a Core aint One

Mogon. Image Credit: ZDV JGU Mainz

While I do not plan to run this script very often – once the calculations are done and saved, the results can be used in the analysis proper over and over again – I fully expect that I might change some operationalisations, include different variables etc., and so I began toying with the parallel package for R to make use of the many cores suddenly at my disposal.

Twelve hours later, I had learned the basics of the scheduling system (LSF), solved the problem of synching my data between home, office, central, and super-computer, gained some understanding of the way parallel works and otherwise achieved basically nothing: Even the best attempt at running a parallelised version of the script on the supercomputer was a little slower than the serialised version on my very capable office machine (and that is without the time (between 15 and 90 seconds) the scripts spends waiting to be transferred to a suitable node of the cluster). I tried different things: replacing lapply with mclapply, which was slower, regardless of the number of cores; using clusterApply instead of lapply (same result), and forking the 33 serial jobs into the background, which was even worse, presumably because storing the returned values resulted in changes to rather large data structures that were propagated to all cores involved.

Lessons Learned?

So yes, to save a few minutes in a script that I will presumably run not more than four or five times over the next couple of weeks, I spent 12 hours, with zilch results. But at least I learned a few things (apart from the obvious re-iteration of the old ‘never change a half-way running system’ mantra). First, even if it takes eight seconds to do the sums, a vector of 25,000 elements is probably to short to really benefit from shifting the calculations to more cores. While forking should be cheap, the overhead of setting up the additional threads dominates any savings. Second, running jobs in parallel without really understanding what overhead this creates is a stupid idea, and knowing what overhead this creates and how to avoid this is probably not worth the candle (see the above). Third, I can always re-use the infrastructure I’ve created (for more pointless experiments). Forth, my next go at Mogon shall avoid half-baked middle-level parallelisation altogether. Instead I shall combine fine-grained implicit parallelism (built into Stata and Mplus) and very coarse explicit parallelism (by breaking up lengthy scripts into small chunks that can be run independently). Further research is definitively needed.

NPD Leadership Struggle: Welcome Back Dear Friends to the Show that Never Ends

Jan 202014
 

Germany’s ultra right-wing NPD is the party that never fails to amaze. After leader Holger Apfel was forced to resign over the (alleged) harassment of ‘young comrades’ just before Christmas, his predecessor Udo Voigt made it clear that he wanted his old job back. But Udo Pastörs (what is it about this name?), who helped Apfel to topple Voigt two years ago emerged as a caretaker instead. Shortly afterwards, Pastörs was appointed leader, though only for a nine-month period.

This weekend, the NPD selected their candidates for the upcoming European election, with both Voigt and Pastörs vying for the top spot. Voigt won, and Pastörs subsequently withdrew from the selection process altogether. I’m sure there will be another leadership challenge in September, or even earlier if the party takes a beating in the May election.

This is all against the backdrop of bankruptcy, political irrelevance and a looming ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court that may (or may not) declare the party unconstitutional. I have said this before and I’m saying it again: This is more than a bit like a struggle over who is in charge on the bridge of the good ship Titanic.

The CDU-Greens Coalition in Hesse: Why It Matters

Jan 192014
 

CDU-Greens Coalition: No Rush Please, We’re Hessian

A mere four months after the Hessian state election, the new CDU-Greens (aka black-green) coalition has duly confirmed Volker Bouffier as Minister President after one tiny glitch (more on that below). While the guys in Hesse took their time, everyone is now very excited, because a successful CDU-Greens coalition would open up a whole host of possibilities beyond the entrenched 2+(2+1) pattern of party competition in Germany.

landtag wiesbaden The CDU Greens Coalition in Hesse: Why It Matters
Home of the CDU-Greens Coalition: Hessischer Landtag Wiesbadenmuckster / Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA

It is not, however, exactly a first: From 2008 to 2010, the city state of Hamburg was governed by a black-green coalition, and from 2009, an even more unlikely ‘Jamaica’ (black-green-yellow, i.e. CDU/Green/FDP) coalition governed in the Saarland before it collapsed in 2011. The media’s official excuse for getting overexcited is that Hesse is the first ‘Flächenland’ (‘area state’, i.e. not a city state) where the new coalition format is tested. But the real reason is that Hesse is at the same time the most likely and the most unlikely place for such an experiment.

Why is Hesse Special?

Hesse holds a special place in the heart of every red-blooded German Politics anorak because it is unusual. Although it has a huge rural core and its traditional industries have been in decline for a very long time, it was dominated by the Social democrats for decades. Back in the 1980s, it became the test bed for red-green coalitions when a young Joschka Fischer was sworn in as the first green minister in Germany, wearing his trademark trainers (now kept in a museum).

Then, the tide turned. In 1999, Roland Koch won the election for the CDU and became Minister President, an office he held until he resigned in 2010 in a surprise move to take a job in the industry. Koch survived a major donation scandal as well as various minor scandals, a lost election (after which he hung on as head of a minority cabinet) and an endless string of controversies over his rather aggressive and often (right-wing) populist approach to politics. During his reign, Hesse’s party system became even more polarised and segmented than it had been in the past. And CDU-led government in Hesse seemed all but inevitable.

What’s in a Bunch of Names?

Back in 2008, Koch, proud bearer of a proper German name (which translates as ‘cook’), authorised a series of posters highlighting the fact that two of the opposition parties were indeed led by folks with very foreign-sounding names (Al-Wazir of the Greens and Ypsilanti of the SPD), while the third opposition party (led by someone with a less suspicious name) was labelled as “Communist”. His attitude left a lot of bad blood. Nonetheless, his successor (hint: French-sounding name), though a long-term ally of Koch and widely considered a law & order politician, was able to embark on a series of talks with all political parties after the election, which had given none of the usual proto-coalitions an outright majority.

More importantly, he convinced Al-Wazir, his old political enemy from the days when Bouffier was known (or admired) as the ‘Black Sheriff’ of Hessian Home Affairs, to become his deputy. During the talks, Bouffier emerged as an unexpectedly shrewd political operator who presented his party – in Hesse, the other Länder and perhaps even in Berlin – with a new option beyond the unloved Great Coalition and the outdated CDU/FDP formats. If a CDU-Greens coalition can work in Hesse, it might work just everywhere.

So what was the glitch? In the first ballot, some MPs were given ballot papers listing the candidate’s name as ‘Max Mustermann’ (Sam Specimen), a popular placeholder for document templates. Allegedly, at least one person voted for this familiar character. Consequently, a second ballot had to be held. The current rapprochement not withstanding, names still seem to be a bit of a problem in Hesse.

The Great NPD Leadership Crisis (Christmas Edition)

Dec 302013
 

Germany’s National Democratic Party in Turmoil

The NPD ended 2013 with a veritable Christmas Panto. On December 19, Holger Apfel, who had become party leader in 2011, stepped down from this and other party offices citing his ill health – a proposition that seemed implausible to your humble blogger (and many others). On December 22, the party’s highest decision making body appointed Udo Pastörs as interim leader. They also published a communique that urged Apfel to ‘disprove allegations directed against him’ and threatened to expel him from the party. Within hours, the nature of these allegations emerged, first in the blogosphere, then in the mainstream media: One (or two, according to other sources) ‘young comrades’ (male) claimed that the (drunken) leader had sexually harassed them during the electoral campaign. Shortly afterwards, Apfel left the party for good.

Homosexuality and Ultra-Nationalism

Sexual harassment is a crime. Homosexuality is not a crime. But it is the latter which ended Apfel’s long and distinguished career within the NPD. During thecurrent legal proceedings against the NPD, it emerged that a quarter of NPD functionaries has criminal convictions, mostly for hate crimes. Apfel’s predecessor (and potential successor) Udo Voigt as well as the interim leader Pastörs were convicted for inciting racial hatred. Voigt’s predecessor Günter Deckert, who was leader in the 1990s, served several years in prison.

adolf hitler 2 The Great NPD Leadership Crisis (Christmas Edition)
cliff1066â„¢ / Foter.com / CC BY

Back in the 1990s, Herbert Kitschelt, in his seminal study on the ‘Radical Right in Western Europe’, traced the electoral weakness of the German Extreme (or Radical) Right to its obsession with the past. Part and parcel of this obsession are the style and culture of the interwar right. The Extreme Right of the 1920s and 1930s, with its images of hypermasculinity, became the spiritual home for scores of young men traumatised in the trenches. The NPD’s insistence on comradery echoes the spirit of these all-male paramilitary organisations.

The Nazis purged homosexuals from their own ranks and killed them on a large scale in the concentration camps while turning women into breeding machines for Reich and Führer. It does not take a great deal of psychoanalysis to make you wonder.

The latest NPD electoral manifesto is an arguably much tamer version of these homophobic (and possibly schizophrenic) tendencies within the right. The party wants to ban single homosexuals (let alone homosexual couples) from adopting children and opposes the notion of ‘homosexual families’ or marriages. According to the NPD, there is a biological struggle between (ethnic) Germans on the one hand and ‘foreigners’ on the other, and Germans must be encouraged by all means (including mini skirts) to breed faster, and more.

Apfel is married with three children, and that was part of his political persona. But while ‘respectability’ was at the core of his personal brand and his strategy for the party, ‘allegations’ of homosexual acts involving consenting adults would kill any political career in the party. And Apfel came to power by a narrow majority vote and was always controversial during his term as leader, making more than enough enemies within the party.

What’s Next?

The NPD is bankrupt, has very little electoral support and is embroiled in internal strife. The current leadership crisis will obviously not help the party. Apfel’s predecessor Voigt has already declared that he wants his old job back, while interim leader Pastörs will have his eyes on a more permanent arrangement. That is one lousy start of the European Parliamentary campaign.

I have often argued that trying to get the NPD banned by the Federal Constitutional Court is unnecessary and imprudent. Without the publicity brought about by the Court proceedings, it might simply have faded into virtual oblivion, just like the Republikaner party of 1990s fame. But even if the FCC refuses to ban the NPD (or, god forbid, if the ECHR overturns a ruling by the FCC), the NPD’s future does not look too rosy. While there is certainly a demand for eurosceptic and xenophobic policies, most voters find the NPD’s tarted-up version of grandpa’s fascism unpalatable. My medium-range prediction is therefore the emergence of a more modern anti-immigrant party in Germany.

Leader of German “National Democrats” (NPD) Resigns

Dec 192013
 

NPD leader resigns in shock move

Holger Apfel, the leader of Germany’s right-wing extremist National Democratic Party (NPD), resigns, citing health reasons. He also steps down as head of the party’s caucus in the Saxonian state parliament.

Apfel’s move adds to the party’s many woes: The NPD is very nearly bankrupt as a result of financial irregularities. Moreover, the party’s constitutionality is currently being investigated by the Federal Constitutional Court. These proceedings could result in a ban of the NPD.

bumsfaldera t Leader of German National Democrats (NPD) Resigns
daklebtwat / Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA

Following an acrimonious leadership contest, Apfel became party leader just over two years ago in November 2011. His main strategic aim was to slightly tone down the party’s radical ambitions in a bid to make it more acceptable to conservative voters. In this respect, he was not in any way successful.

Why, and why now?

Apparently, the party and its leadership were taken completely by surprise. Within minutes, it was leaked that Apfel suffers from ‘burn out’, which could boil down to ‘too much interaction with dear comrades’. [It is up to the reader to insert a silly pun on the NPD's obsession with "the Leader"/their leadership troubles at this point]

Apfel’s predecessor Udo Voigt, who was leader from 1996 until 2011 and then grudgingly became Apfel’s deputy, has certainly made life miserable for Apfel during the last two years. Also within minutes, Voigt has declared that he was ready to take the helm once more ‘under certain conditions’.

But citing health reasons and stepping down is not the way things are done in the NPD. And while infighting is common enough within the NPD’s national leadership, it seems odd that Apfel should also give up his position in Saxony, which is his power base, unless he is really seriously ill. Therefore, fellow anoraks and conspiracy theorists will contemplate another explanation: That Apfel could have been one of those informers (paid by the government’s many secret services) whose involvement with the leadership led to the collapse of the first bid to ban the NPD back in 2002.

Meanwhile in Germany: The Great Coalition Treaty Vote

Dec 112013
 

SPD votes on the coalition agreement

It’ another slow week for German politics, what with the Mandela Memorial, near-civil war in Thailand, the standoff in Ukraine and the South Korean/Japanese Chinese skirmishes. BUT: a small-scale CDU party conference of some 180 delegates has approved unanimously of the CDU/CSU/SPD agreement (a ‘Coalition Treaty’ in German parlance, though it can not be challenged in/enforced by the Constitutional Court). Delegates at a similar CSU conference have done their bit a month ago. Much more interesting is of course the case of the SPD, which put the agreement to a referendum by their 472,000 rank-and-file members.

The all-postal ballot will end tomorrow at midnight, and we will know the result on Saturday. So far, more than 300,000 people have voted. That alone is remarkable.

What if?

Last weekend, a conference of the party’s youth organisation passed a resolution that recommends members should vote against the agreement. The party leadership was less than delighted.

No one knows exactly what the rest of the members think. It’s entirely conceivable that a majority votes against, while it is inconceivable that the current leadership (broadly defined) that negotiated the agreement could survive such an embarrassment. The most likely outcome would be elections in February, though I’m sure that Merkel and the Greens would have another series of fireside chats if push came to shove. And if there were elections, the SPD would tank.

I’m sure the SPD members will bear this twin scenario in mind when they make their choice.

Germany 1990-2011: Some Extra 700 Cases of (Attempted) Right-Wing Murder?

Dec 042013
 

Following the revelations about the forces’ disastrous failure to uncover (let alone catch) the murderous ‘Nationalsozialistischer Untergrund’ terror group, federal investigators have launched a fresh probe into some 3300 unsolved cases of (attempted) murder. According to Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung, they have identified 746 crimes that that could have been committed by right-wingers for political reasons. Official records. These cases will be referred back to regional police forces for further investigations. So far, the official number of right-wing murders since 1990 was in the region of some 60 cases. Seriously (though many people doubted this figure).

ross cromarty constabulary Germany 1990 2011: Some Extra 700 Cases of (Attempted) Right Wing Murder?
conner395 / Foter.com / CC BY

Here is the link to the original story (in German).