Feb 272015

Update: 542 in favour, 32 voting against, 13 abstentions. Nays & abstentions all from CDU, CSU, Left, apparently. See you in June.

In about an hour, Germany’s parliament will have a debate on the extension of the bailout program for Greece that is scheduled to take all of a cool 90 minutes. It will be followed by a roll call vote. Although about 30 CDU/CSU dissidents including the deputy of the Christian Democrats’ parliamentary  will vote against the government’s proposal or abstain, some North Korean-sized super majority is virtually guaranteed: The SPD and the Greens are almost unanimously in favour, and even the Left, who normally votes against the “neoliberal” EU stuff will support their comrades in Athens this time ’round.

Then, it’s back to normal. Expect a similar procedure four months down the line, just in time for the next instalment of the Great Greek/European Drama Series (TM). In the meantime, don’t forget that V is for Varoufakis.



Feb 242015

Almost a decade ago, I published an article with a cutesy title on the decline of party identification in Germany, of which I am inordinately proud. The main message of this piece was that party identification in Germany has not collapsed, but is rather declining at the glacial rate of 0.7 percentage points per year, give or take. Here is the relevant graph:

Party Identification in West Germany, 1977-2002

For a more recent project, I have extended the time-series to cover the whole 1977-2012 period, right up to the begin of the 2013 federal election campaign. As it turns out, de-alignment in the West has come to a virtual halt during the last decade – see here:

Partisan Dealignment in West Germany

Decline of party identification in West Germany, 1977-2012

If you think that this is still too noisy, have a look at this trajectory, which is derived from a binary logistic model that regresses identifications on time, age, education, and campaign effects. More on this soon – stay tuned.

Estimated overall levels of partisanship in West Germany, 1977-2012 (adjusted predictions at representative values (APR)

Estimated overall levels of partisanship in West Germany, 1977-2012 (adjusted predictions at representative values (APR)

Feb 182015
Feb 122015
Feb 082015

The utterly erratic and ridiculously eclectic bibliography on far-right parties and their voters has been online for nearly five years now and contains just under 500 references. Obviously, it’s time for some semi-serious statistical analysis. To kick things off, I’m looking at the distribution of articles across journals, which is dominated by (surprise!) European and comparative outfits.

rightwing photoPhoto by Gueоrgui

Here is the full table:

Journal No of Articles
European Journal of Political Research 36
West European Politics 29
Party Politics 15
Acta Politica 12
Electoral Studies 11
Comparative Political Studies 10
Parliamentary Affairs 9
Osteuropa 7
Patterns of Prejudice 6
{\”O}sterreichische Zeitschrift f{\”u}r Politikwissenschaft 5
Political Psychology 5
Scandinavian Political Studies 5
Comparative European Politics 5
British Journal of Political Science 5
American Sociological Review 5
European Sociological Review 4
Government and Opposition 4
Political Studies 4
Ethnic and Racial Studies 4
Journal of Political Ideologies 3
American Journal of Political Science 3
Comparative Politics 3
Swiss Political Science Review 3
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 3
Journal of Social Issues 2
Contemporary European History 2
K{\”o}lner Zeitschrift f{\”u}r Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie 2
Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 2
International Journal of Public Opinion Research 2
American Political Science Review 2
European Union Politics 2
European Political Science Review 2
Social Forces 2
The Journal of Politics 2
Acta Sociologica 2
European Journal of Social Theory 1
Journal of Civil Society 1
Totalitarian Movements \& Political Religions 1
Political Behavior 1
Dansk Sociologi 1
Oxford Economic Papers 1
Totalitarian Movements and Political Religions 1
East European Politics and Societies 1
Comparative Governance and Politics 1
Review of Politics 1
Rationality and Society 1
East European Politics 1
The SAIS Review of International Affairs 1
Pacific Sociological Review 1
Central European Political Studies Review 1
Socio-Economic Review 1
International Political Science Review 1
Studies in Comparative International Development 1
Journal of Contemporary European Research 1
European Journal of Social Psychology 1
Sociology of Religion 1
Sociological Quarterly 1
American Journal of Sociology 1
Political Research Quarterly 1
Journal of Peace Research 1
Annual Review of Psychology 1
Journal of Theoretical Politics 1
Die Union 1
new community 1
Geojournal 1
German Politics 1
Review of Religious Research 1
Annual Review of Sociology 1
Comparative European Politcs 1
Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 1
Personality and Individual Differences 1
International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 1
Regional Politics and Policy 1
conflict \& communication online 1
Social Science Quarterly 1
Revue Politique et Parlementaire 1
Partisan Review 1
International Journal of Comparative Sociology 1
Journal of Modern Italian Studies 1
Public Opinion Quarterly 1
Social Behavior and Personality 1
Political Science Quarterly 1
Journal of European Public Policy 1
Political Communication 1
International Journal of Sociology 1
Australian Journal of Politics and History 1
Theory and Society 1
Leviathan 1
Feb 072015

The good people at Taylor & Francis have kindly ungated my AfD article in West European Politics, after a fashion. If you don’t have an institutional subscription for WEP, you may click here to gain access to the full text anyway. However, this link is limited to 50 clicks, so if your institution has subscribed to WEP, be a good egg and rather use this ordinary DOI-based link through the paywall. And failing all that, the ungated author’s version is here.

afd photoPhoto by blu-news.org

Feb 012015

The AfD’s national party conference has approved a change to the party’s constitution will give the party a simplified leadership structure, which will more closely resemble those of the dreaded ‘Altparteien’ (‘old’ or established parties) CDU, CSU, FDP, and SPD. After a period of transition, the AfD will have a single ‘Vorsitzender’ (party chair), supported by a ‘Generalsekretär’ (a subordinate managerial role). Currently, the party has three ‘speakers’ (chairs), all with equal powers and responsibilities, and so is closer to the model chosen by the Left and the Greens who each employ two party chairs to give equal representation to both sexes (as well as to various factions).

Bernd Lucke, one of the current speakers who has very much been the party’s public face since the 2013 campaign, has tried to push through this change for at least a year. At the conference, he rather undiplomatically complained that the other two were creating confusion and delay, and that he was often left with the task to clean up after them. He also hinted that he wants this job – but so does Frauke Petry (who has recently become very cosy with Pegida). This is not just a clash of personalities – rather Lucke and Petry seem to represent different trajectories for the future development of the party.

lucke petry photoPhoto by blu-news.org