The AfD simplifies its leadership structure – major power struggle ahead?

 Political Science, Politics  No Responses »
Feb 012015
 

The AfD’s national party conference has approved a change to the party’s constitution will give the party a simplified leadership structure, which will more closely resemble those of the dreaded ‘Altparteien’ (‘old’ or established parties) CDU, CSU, FDP, and SPD. After a period of transition, the AfD will have a single ‘Vorsitzender’ (party chair), supported by a ‘Generalsekretär’ (a subordinate managerial role). Currently, the party has three ‘speakers’ (chairs), all with equal powers and responsibilities, and so is closer to the model chosen by the Left and the Greens who each employ two party chairs to give equal representation to both sexes (as well as to various factions).

Bernd Lucke, one of the current speakers who has very much been the party’s public face since the 2013 campaign, has tried to push through this change for at least a year. At the conference, he rather undiplomatically complained that the other two were creating confusion and delay, and that he was often left with the task to clean up after them. He also hinted that he wants this job – but so does Frauke Petry (who has recently become very cosy with Pegida). This is not just a clash of personalities – rather Lucke and Petry seem to represent different trajectories for the future development of the party.

lucke petry photoPhoto by blu-news.org

Peak Pegida II

 Political Science, Politics  No Responses »
Jan 282015
 

For the first time, the number of people attending the original Pegida marches in Dresden has fallen, while in most German towns and cities anti-Pegida demonstrators outstrip Pegida supporters by a considerable margin. This evening, four more members of Pegida’s executive have resigned, including Kathrin Oertl, who had become Pegida’s official face after Lutz Bachman’s Hitler picture gaffe.

Meanwhile, in Duckburg the Social Democrats, who seem a bit slow on the uptake, are still conflicted over whether they should engage in some sort of dialog with Pegida, and if so, with whom. What can I say?pegida photoPhoto by Sozialfotografie [►] StR

Will Alexis Tsipras be Prime Minister of Greece?

 Political Science, Politics  2 Responses »
Jan 232015
 

Everyone is angry/worried/excited/happy (delete as appropriate) about the prospect of Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the radical left-wing Syriza party, becoming Prime Minister of Greece, while the man himself has begun to treat the election as a mere formality. But is such an outcome even likely? The most recent polls have given Syriza a lead of two to ten percentage points over the centre-right New Democracy party, which is currently governing in a coalition with the (much reduced) centre-left Pasok.

Τσίπρας photoPhoto by 0neiros

While the number of undecided voters is still very high (in the range of ten per cent), the pattern is very consistent: ND has not been leading in a single poll taken since last May. Being the strongest party is significant, as it would give Syriza the 50 seat bonus that is still enshrined in Greek electoral law.

Party Percent Seats
Syriza 32.5 95+50
New Democracy 26.5 77
Potami 5.8 17
Golden Dawn 5 15
KKE 5 15
Pasok 4.4 13
Independent Greeks 3.4 10
Social Democrats 3 9

(based on latest GOP poll)

But even so, it is unclear if Syriza reaches the 151 seats that are required to form a government. The results of the last GPO poll translate into just 95 + 50 seats for Syriza. That’s with the newly formed Social Democratic party of former PM Papandreou scraping past the three per cent threshold. But even if the Social Democrats don’t make it, Syriza would need 34 per cent (about the highest level of support they have so far achieved in the polls) to win 151 seats. Only if the slightly erratic Independent Greeks also poll less than three per cent, 32 per cent of the vPhoto by 0neiros ote will be enough to give Syriza an outright majority of the seats (tactical voting, anyone?).

Otherwise, they will have to find a coalition partner. The communists (KKE) have firmly ruled out the prospect of any cooperation with Syriza, while Tsipras has declared that he does not want to work with the left-liberal (?) Potami. As of now, other coalitions look even less likely, so this may well end in a hung parliament.

Have we seen peak Pegida?

 Political Science, Politics  1 Response »
Jan 202015
 

Authorities in the Saxonian city of Dresden have issued a blanket ban on marches, demonstrations and outdoor assemblies following alleged islamist death threats against the founder of the “Pegida” (“Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the Occident”) movement, who has masterminded the mass demonstrations in Dresden for the last three months. This is a highly unusual development by German standards, and political reactions from the very left to the very right have been predictably negative (for very different reasons). More specifically, the issue will help to further strengthen the ties between Pegida and the (eastern sections) of the AfD.

Dresden photo

Dresden: This is not a mosque

Meanwhile, social scientists are slowly trying to get a grip on Pegida. One of Germany’s leading scholars on social movement and protest mobilisation even dares to make a prediction: Dieter Rucht thinks that Pegida is past the zenith of thPhoto by Polybert49 e attention cycle, highlighting interesting parallels to the Occupy movement. Another interesting point (not discussed in the linked article) is that even after three months of mass mobilisation, Pegida has not managed to become a national movement. By and large, it is still very much focused on Dresden, which has been a hotspot of right-wing mobilisation for the last 25 years. And by the way, the beautiful building in the picture is a former cigarette factory built in the oriental style that was popular in Dresden a hundred years ago or so. Go figure.

Are Greek MPs rational?

 Political Science, Politics  2 Responses »
Jan 182015
 

With all that is going pear-shaped in the world, you would be forgiven not to be aware of the latest instalment in the Great Greek Political Drama Series. It actually had a rather long lead: The current president’s term was coming to an end, and Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the radical left opposition faction Syriza had made it clear from at least last summer that he would use the provisions of the constitution to bring down the current centre-right/centre left coalition government.

How was that possible? After various defections, the current government is supported by 156 of 300 MPs, still a workable and reasonably stable majority of 52 per cent. But although the office is largely ceremonial, electing a new president requires a super majority: two thirds of the MPs in the first two rounds or 60 per cent (180 votes) in the third and final round.

greek parliament photoPhoto by ARKNTINA

That alone is an unusual arrangement, as a surprisingly large number of European states does more or less well with unelected ceremonial heads of state (think monarchy), while many others are content to elect the chief figurehead by run-off or simple plurality rules. In Greece, parliament is dissolved instead (and to add insult to injury, a simple plurality is sufficient to elect a president in the new parliament).

Given the current state of the polls, the most likely outcome of the election on January 25 is a hung parliament: the government will lose its majority, but Syriza will probably find itself without a coalition partner and will not be able to govern alone even if they win the bonus awarded to the biggest party. Moreover, the small “Democratic Left” party will probably be wiped out, and various independent MPs will lose their seats. The right-wing “Independent Greeks” and the neo-fascist “Golden Dawn” are also poised to suffer (less dramatic) losses. On political grounds alone, the continuing until 2016 should have been preferable to an early election for any MP to the right of Syriza, not to mention the decline in personal circumstances for those who will lose their seats.

The 25 independents acting in unison alone could have prevented the election. And yet, only 168 MPs voted for the government’s candidate, 13 more (or perhaps 15 more – this is confusing) than the government’s own voting bloc but 12 less than required to prevent the election. So the others either have privileged information about the outcome of the election, value principled opposition higher than political outcomes and personal welfare, have silently defected to Syriza, or have received some side-payment. Or they are irrational. Your choice.

New Publication: The AfD: Finally a Successful Right-Wing Populist Eurosceptic Party for Germany?

 Political Science  3 Responses »
Dec 212014
 

I am pleased to be able to inform you that the editors are happy with the revisions you made to your article and we can now proceed to publication.

I could not agree more. The revised article will appear in 2015, possibly rather late. Meanwhile, the author’s version of my piece on Germany’s Alternative party (which shows, amongst other things, that the AfD has positioned itself very close to the governing CSU (or vice versa?) is available here.

Five More Links I Liked

 Links  No Responses »
Dec 132014