The CDU/CSU/SPD coalition talks are set to come to a conclusion tonight. The more interesting question however is if and how the September election will affect the party system in the medium term. My reading is that the high levels of segmentation that we have seen in the past are becoming unsustainable.
We have updated our Stata package surveybias, which estimates bias in pre-election polls and other surveys where the true distribution is known. A new feature facilitates the en masse comparison of surveys collected before an election. Also in this release: somewhat better documentation and toy data to get you started.
I have (finally) made available a replication data set for Liz’s and my 2006 EJPR article on Political Opportunity Structures and the Extreme Right: doi:10.7910/DVN/23280
Slides (in German) for a talk I gave at the University of Zurich on the idea of a European set of value priorities. While preferences are very similar across Europe, with universalism and benevolence coming out top and self-enhancement ranking low, security is crucial for the post-communist societies in Central & Eastern Europe. I further…
In Germany, people begin to realise that Merkel may have painted herself into a corner by winning so gloriously. While her Christian Democrats are by far the largest party group in the new Bundestag, she needs a coalition partner, but nobody wants to play. Merkel may have painted herself into a corner by winning so gloriously. This could still end in new elections or a minority government
The centre-right coalition could have continued with a little help for the FDP. Without doubt, this result is a great triumph for Merkel. But I think the CDU leadership may have outwitted themselves, and the stern, slightly grumpy expression Merkel wore as she left the celebrations seems to confirm it.
I’m guest blogging at the LSE’s excellent EUROPP blog. Somehow the phrase ‘you could have the final word on the campaign’ has gotten to my head. German federal elections preview: the parties and their campaigns | EUROPP.
We’re now officially in the final throes of a very bad case of election fever. Or at least the wonks are. Here is my latest take on the last polls. Bonus round: Why Bavaria does not mean a thing, and how this effects the Merkel-O-Meter.
I’ve been pooling the German pre-election polls since early this summer, and have published preliminary findings since August. People keep asking me the same questions, so here is my FAQ on pooling the polls.
State of Play: From Momentum to Peer’s Finger The German media have been particularly excitable this week. They kicked off with floating the idea that there was momentum in the polls (“SPD up by almost two points!”) and concluded with covering the infamous magazine cover portraying Peer Steinbrück flaunting his finger. Moreover, the idea that…