Germany’s 2025 early election was a political earthquake. How did we end up in this mess, and what does it mean for Germany and Europe? Here is my attempt at an answer.
The AfD doubled its vote share in Germany’s 2025 federal election, achieving dominance in eastern states with over 30% of votes but also making significant gains in the west. Its success stems from mobilizing non-voters, attracting disaffected voters from other parties, and exploiting migration fears. Despite this, its extremist stance remains polarizing. Germany’s democratic parties still have a chance to stem the tide, but they must act now.
Zunächst mit dem SWR und dann mit dem Deutschlandfunk habe ich über das relativ gute Abschneiden der AfD im Wahlkreis Kaiserslautern gesprochen. Der Artikel beim SWR hat mir die bislang originellste Beleidigung meiner Karriere eingebacht: meine Uni sei so schlecht, dass sie demnächst komplett aus dem Ranking fallen werde. Womit ich das verdient habe, kann…
The internet is a strange place that can bring together people who never meet in real life™. Case in point: me & Iberian journalists who want to talk about the election and (you guessed that right) the AfD. This time around, it was Marta Rey from Spanish public broadcaster RTVE, who wrote not one, not…
Mit dem NDR habe ich am Tag nach der Bundestagswahl darüber gesprochen, wie die Parteien sich nun neu sortieren könnten. Die Sendung kann man hier nachhören: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/sendungen/interviews/Politikwissenschaftler-Fuer-Gruene-wird-es-schwer-sich-neu-zu-erfinden,audio1820986.html
What were the 5 posts in 2024 that people actually read? #1 will surprise you.
After the 2019 Green wave, many observers expected a blue-brownish backlash for 2024. And in many countries, these observers (who are these people, and why are they always so well-informed?) were not disappointed. In Germany, the governing “progressive” coalition took a rather spectacular beating, while the main opposition, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) performed ok-ish. The…
With just two days to go, this is my last look at AfD support in the polls before the 2024 EP elections.
Here is a new working paper about the disproportionate success of the AfD and the Left in Germany’s eastern states
The warning signs have been present for some time. Les Républicains are on the verge of a crackup. Caught between Macron’s LRM and Le Pen’s RN, the party’s electoral space […]