I regularly comment on German and European politics and on political extremism
Das Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz hat sich entschieden, die Alternative für Deutschland als Prüf- und den “Flügel” sowie die Junge Alternative als Verdachtsfälle zu betrachten. Zu den politischen Reaktionen und wahrscheinlichen Folgen berichtet das Handelsblatt – mit etwas Input von mir zu den Auswirkungen auf die Wählerschaft und das Machtgleichgewicht innerhalb der AfD.
Die neue AfD Bundestagsfraktion hat in ihrem ersten Jahr etliche Gesetzesinitiativen vorgelegt und eine größere Zahl parlamentarischer Anfragen gestartet. Dabei geht es fast unabhängig vom Anlaß allerdings immer nur um ein Thema: Migration. Dietmar Neuerer vom Handelsblatt hat mit dem Berliner Kollegen Oskar Niedermayer und mir darüber gesprochen, ob das Verhalten der Parlamentsneulinge ungewöhnlich ist und wie man es bewerten sollte. Den Artikel dazu gibt es hier:
Nützen die – rasch revidierten – Bemerkungen von Friedrich Merz der AfD? Darüber habe ich mit dem Handelsblatt gesprochen:
The other day, I had a chat about the extent of the Far Right’s rise in Europe and the structural factors behind that with Courthouse News. Here’s the article, with some choice quotes by me.
Mit dem Handesblatt bzw. dts habe ich über die Kandidatur von Friedrich Merz für den CDU-Vorsitz und dessen mögliche Folgen für die AfD gesprochen.
Mit dem Handelsblatt habe ich über die mittelfristigen Zukunftsaussichten der AfD gesprochen:
Yardena Schwartz has written a portrait of the AfD’s Frauke Petry for Newsweek, with some input and a couple of verbatim quotes from me.
Over at Diário de Notícias, Jose Fialho Gouveia has published another article on Germany, Schulz, and all that jazz, once more with a couple of my cents added. By the way, don’t you just love the imagery of beer jug hefting German politicians?
DNIf you’re interested, here is the English transcript of our chat.
“We are six months away from the elections in Germany. Can Schulz really win?”
At the moment, the SPD and the CDU/CSU block are neck-on-neck. But six months away from the election, many voters are undecided or may change their mind further down the road. Historically, the SPD has only twice surpassed the Christian Democrats (in 1972 and 1998). So it is possible that SPD gets more votes than the CDU/CSU combined, but I would not bet on it. At the end of the day, the more relevant question is who will be able to form a winning coalition in parliament.
“Could it be possible a great coalition between the SPD and the CDU with the SPD as the bigger party”
If the SPD actually gets more votes than the Christian Democrats, that is entirely possible.
“The economy is doing fine, the SPD is pro-EU and also pro-refuges, so how can Schulz attack Merkel?”
In a sense, Schulz is attacking the previous (post 2002) reform policies of his own party. He also tries to benefit from the fact that Merkel has been in office for a long time, and that some voters are tired of her (not so much of her policies).
“Which one o you think will be the main issues during the campaign?”
Schulz and the SPD are focusing heavily on “justice”, in particular “social justice”. He is also attacking right-wing populism. Whether this will be enough to propel them through a six-month-long campaign is a different question.
I had another chat with Jose Fialho Gouveia that contributed to an article on the possible restarting of the French-German integration motor. Here is the article (in Portuguese).
www.handelsblatt.com
www.courthousenews.com
