Does the European Radical Right present a united front vis-a-vis the European Union, and is there a Trump effect that could further the cause of the Radical Right in Europe? I don’t think so (and here is an automated English translation).
Kai Arzheimer: Media
I regularly comment on German and European politics and on political extremism
With the upcoming (well, sort of) election and the shenanigans in the SPD, the world is watching Germany. The other day, I was interviewed by a journalist working for Diário de Notícias.
Analistas ouvidos pelo DN veem como muito difícil que o candidato dos sociais-democratas do SPD e novo líder do partido consiga aliança com o Die Linke e com Os Verdes
Just like the next guy, I love the sound of Portuguese, but I don’t understand any more than the odd word that comes my way. If you are like me, you might be interested in the transcript that I authorised:
- Is Schulz a stronger candidate than Gabriel?
Yes, insofar as he is currently more popular in the polls. If that translates into a real advantage remains to be seen.
- What are his strongest and weakest points?
Unlike Gabriel, he has not been Merkel’s deputy for the last four years and so may appear more credible when he attacks her during the campaign. On the other hand, he has not held public office in Germany (apart from his spell in local politics that ended some two decades ago), and the CDU/CSU and the FDP will portray him as a lefty who is in favour of eurobonds and a lenient approach to the Eurocrisis.
- Could this hurt Merkel’s ambitions of a fourth term?
I don’t think that the Schulz will lure many voters away from the CDU, but he might be more able than Gabriel to mobilise some reluctant SPD supporters.
- Do you see a possible a wining coalition between SPD, Linke and Greens?
There is still a lot of bad blood between the SPD and the Left, and the Left is hugely unpopular with West German voters. Also, the Left is far away from the other two parties with respect to foreign policies, and the Greens have just endorsed a Spitzenkandidatenteam that appeals to the eco-conservatives. For these (and other) reasons, politicians of all three parties are reluctant about such a coalition, to say the least. Also, on current polling a red-red-green coalition is infeasible by a considerable margin.
Before Christmas, I had yet another chat with the journalist Yardena Schwartz, who covers Germany for various outlets in the US. Parts of our conversation re-surface in a piece she wrote for Politico on Germany’s Far Right:
She also published an article on how the Far Right tries to capitalise from the Berlin Christmas Market attack, again with a little bit of input from yours truly.
Auch der zweite Versuch, die NPD vom Bundesverfassungsgericht verbieten zu lassen, hat nicht zum Erfolg geführt. Mit dem “Volksfreund” aus Trier habe ich über Gründe und mögliche Folgen des gescheiterten NPD-Verbotsverfahrens gesprochen.
I recently had a lengthy chat with Yardena Schwartz on the AfD’s significance for German politics, and their likely trajectory. One thing that came out of it is a CJR article on the (mis?)representation of the AfD and their voters in the German media. I don’t agree with everything she writes, but it is certainly an interesting read.
On November 14, Martin Shmid headed to work in Munich, still ecstatic about the previous week’s election of Donald Trump and what it would mean for the Alternative for Deutschland, or AfD, Germany’s populist, right-wing party. Shmid, who works as director of the AfD’s state headquarters in Bavaria, lost the bounce in his step as […]
Der rheinland-pfälzische Landtag wird in Zukunft die Pressemeldungen der Fraktionen nicht mehr auf seiner Homepage veröffentlichen. Hintergrund ist, die Landtagsverwaltung nicht für möglicherweise justiziable Aussagen der AfD in Mithaftung genommen werden möchte. Über diesen Vorgang habe ich gestern mit dem Trierischen Volksfreund gesprochen. Einige Einschätzungen zur Vokabel “Volksverrat” sind in diesen Artikel eingeflossen:
I had a lengthy chat with someone from Bloomberg on the AfD and their use of Social Media. The result is a short piece with some soundbites by me. If you want to know a little more about the AfD’s role in the darker corners of the German Interwebs, have a look at my APSA Paper on the AfD and Social Media (colourful pictures to be found towards the end of the PDF).
Mit dem Handelsblatt habe ich darüber gesprochen, ob die AfD in Ostdeutschland zur Volkspartei wird.
Der Zuspruch für die AfD ist ungebrochen. Bei Wahlen fährt sie zweistellige Ergebnisse ein. Umfragen sehen die Partei im Osten sogar teilweise vor der CDU. Hat sie das Zeug, zur neuen Volkspartei aufzusteigen? Eine Analyse.
Im Gespräch mit dem Handelsblatt erkläre ich, warum ich nicht glaube, daß die AfD im großen Umfang von Trumps Wahlerfolg profitieren kann.
In passing, the Huffington Post mentions my AJPS article on Contextual Effects. Very flattering, though the whole story is a bit more complicated than the Post suggests.