Blog posts on the Extreme Right

The Extreme Right (or Radical Right, New Right, Populist Right) is one of my main research interests. Here is a collection of blog posts on the Extreme Right (i.e. parties, voters, policies) that I have written over the years. If this is relevant for you, you might also be interested in the 400+ titles bibliography on the Extreme Right that I maintain and in this page, which summarises much of my work on the Extreme Right.

May 232015
 
antipope photo

Photo by *_*

My favourite if vaguely remembered piece of medieval history is the bit when assorted popes, antipopes, and anti-antipopes busily excommunicated each other. The AfD has reached that stage. A few days ago, Lucke forced a motion of the national executive that aims at unseating Höcke as party leader in Thuringia. But his creation of a “wake-up call” association has earned him very few friends so far, and may well contradict the party statutes. Accordingly, the state party in Saxony has decreed that membership in the association is incompatible with membership in the party, and Thuringia is set to follow suit.

In other news, the leader of the party’s youth organisation lost his office over the wake-up call issue, and Petry has finally declared that she will run for sole party leader.

When you play a game of thrones you win or you die.

May 212015
 
Putsch in the AfD?

I would not normally recommend acting on any of my predictions, because I have an amazing track-record of being wrong a long time in advance. But once in a blue moon, I get it right. In my WEP article on the AfD’s EP 2014 manifesto, I have pointed out that there was a rift between Lucke’s polite market liberalism on the one hand and more radical shades of right-wing populism on the other, and that the party would have to chose between the two. Evidence for this has been coming in in large quantities over the last couple of months, and things are moving really fast now. The party seems to be split solidly between Lucke and his fellow “moderates” (“liberals” seems to be a bit of an exaggeration), and the “conservatives” (certainly an understatement). Both factions are warring openly, and the upcoming party conference in June may well mark the undoing of the AfD.

Over the last week, new scores of “liberals” have resigned from their offices or even left the party in despair, leading arch-“liberal” Hans-Olaf Henkel to call for a “purge” (yes, as in “Stalinist purge”). Over the weekend, Lucke decided to fight back and launched his “Wake-up call” initiative that aims at keeping the moderates within the party. The initiative is not just another resolution/website but rather a formal membership association (apparently with its own funds) that could be used to ferry the moderates to – you guessed it – a new party led by Lucke. That sounded like a brilliant move on Sunday night, when Lucke apparently tried to contact each of the 22,000 party members by means of his famous nightly missives, distributed via the party’s central data base of email addresses. But his co-party leaders Petry and Adam ordered some poor administrator to lock the party’s most famous face out of the system.

One of the main findings of my article is that at least until mid-2014, Lucke managed to dominate the (largely internet-based) communications of the AfD. He may now well regret the fact that he moved to Brussels/Strasbourg, presumably giving up some of this control. In the end, he managed to sent out his message, but the response has been underwhelming, and according to media reports, asymmetric: Much like the precursor “Deutschland-Resolution”, the “wake-up call” resonates even less in the East than in the West. His colleagues in the (somewhat diminished) national executive are now poking fun at Lucke, and for the first time, Petry seems to ponder the idea to run for the new, sole leadership post at the party conference. A formal split seems now all but inevitable, and my money is on a “liberal” exodus.

May 152015
 
NPD photo

Photo by ubiquit23

If you are following the latest attempt to have Germany’s right-wing extremist NPD declared unconstitutional, you might be disappointed by the lack of news. Today, the federal states that push for such a ban have submitted four folders with additional evidence requested by the Federal Constitutional Court – evidence corroborating the states’ claim that they have “switched off” their many informers in time for the new trial. Last time round (in 2002/3), a qualified minority of judges had refused to hear the case against the NPD, because in their view, the party’s leadership had been infiltrated on a scale that made it impossible for the party to act autonomously. The request for new evidence does not bode well for the prosecution. The court is expected to decide in autumn whether they allow the case to go past the pre-trial stage.

May 122015
 

Welcome back dear friends / to the show that never ends: In the latest instalment of the great AfD soap,  national leader Lucke is trying to remove Höcke as leader in Thuringia over Höcke’s friendly words towards the NPD. Contrary to some reports, Lucke is not (yet)  trying to kick Höcke out of the party but rather wants to ban him temporarily from holding offices within the AfD. Here is a link.

May 102015
 

Update : Lücke now thinks that a break-up may be inevitable.
Sunday evening, time for my weekly post on the state of the AfD. So, without further ado, a look at this week’s carnage.

lucke photo

Photo by JamesReaFotos

NPD

  • The right-wing extremist NPD claims that they are “networking” with AfD functionaries at the local level in Bavaria.
  • Björn Höcke, one of the proponents of the nationalist wing in the AfD and party leader in Thuringia
    • refused to sign an affidavit regarding allegations that he writes pseudonymously for an NPD party journal
    • publicly declared that not each and every member of the NPD should be considered an extremist.

State parliaments

  • Various newspapers report on an alleged “split” in the AfD’s delegation in the Hamburg state parliament.
  • The rift in Thuringia state parliament delegation is very real, though it is not clear what will come out of it.
  • While I’m writing this, it is still an open question if the AfD cleared the electoral hurdle in the Bremen state election. If they remain below 5 per cent, it would be the their first electoral defeat since 2013.

National leadership crisis

  • This weekends’ party conference in NRW (a previous conference was called off on procedural grounds), whose sole purpose was to select delegates for the national conference in June has been described as shambolic. The voting procedure may be challenged in court. NRW selects about 20 per cent of the national delegates, who will play a crucial role in any attempts to unseat Lucke as leader.
  • While the party is still waiting for the Bremen result, co-founder Konrad Adam went on the record claiming that he has “evidence” that co-founder Lucke will leave AfD and set up new party. Lucke said this was “nonsense” but did not directly reject the allegations. I don’t think there is any “evidence””, but this shows how much relationships within the leadership have deteriorated.
May 032015
 

It’s Sunday afternoon, and I’m mildly surprised that no-one prominent has resigned yet, or been expelled this weekend. A year after their EP election triumph and a week before the Bremen state election, the Germany’s AfD party seems set to continue on its path to self-destruction. On second thought, I may be exaggerating, but only a bit.

Who is Olaf Henkel, and why does his resignation matter?

hans-olaf henkel photo

Photo by JamesReaFotos

Last week, Hans-Olaf Henkel, one of the party’s MEPs, resigned from the national leadership because he is unhappy with the right-wing tendencies (“Rechtsruck”) in the party. In the past, the man himself has been no stranger to allegations of being a right-winger, but by and large he was a “reputational shield” for the party. For years, would-be party founders of new right-wing alternative vehicles had courted him, and when he finally joined the AfD, the former Vice President of IBM, former president of the powerful German Industry Federation and former president of the Leibniz association of non-university research institutes, brought a lot of political, social, and financial capital to the party (bad pun alert). Together with Lucke, he was the most prominent face of the pro-business, market-liberal tendency in the party, and so his resignation was greeted with glee by Alexander Gauland, one of the eastern big wigs of the anti-foreigner, anti-immigrant, anti-Islam persuasion, who suggested that Henkel should leave the party for good. Henkel in turn managed to exclude Marcus Pretzell from the AfD MEP group for leaking internal documents (i.e.e less-than-friendly emails) to Politico.

Other calamities

In NRW, Pretzell’s deputy resigned after he failed to unseat Pretzell. In Thuringia, Björn Höcke refused to sign an affidavit regarding his alleged ties to the right-wing extremist NPD. The national leadership threatened to retaliate with – what? Patricia Casale (one of the lesser known members) also resigned from the national board, saying she had no choice left. Money is still missing from the war chest. The party conference in June will be great fun even by AfD standards.

Germany’s AfD: The outlook

The crux of the matter is that for the last two years, the AfD has been playing to two different audiences. Even the “liberal” wing around Lucke is right-wing in more than one sense of the word, but they have been anxious to avoid contamination by the images and issues of the Extreme Right, drawing support from former CDU and FDP voters. The “conservative” wing, on the other hand, quickly realised that the party attracted voters who should not have supported them had they read the chiefly market-liberal 2014 manifesto, and so began playing the xenophobic tune in the Eastern state election campaigns. This cannot go on. My money (and I have been wrong in these matters in the most embarrassing ways) is on a party split over the next 12 months or so, and I’m sure no wing will survive alone.

Apr 222015
 

Over on his blog, Andreas Kemper has an interesting piece (in German) on the five state-level party conferences the AfD has held last weekend. According to him, the outcomes of the conferences demonstrate that the party has shifted further to the right in four (Hesse, Brandenburg, Thuringia, Saxony-Anhalt) of these five cases. A sixth party in Northrhine Westphalia conference, which was scheduled for this weekend, has been cancelled today. It had been widely expected that his opponents would try to overthrow Marcus Pretzell as state party leader at the conference. Now it would seem that both sides are regrouping.

Apr 212015
 
16744869136_23292359f0_pegida

I’m guest-blogging over at the Disclaimer Magazine

We live under the impression that the extreme right in Germany is weak. While it is less visible than equivalents in France or the Netherlands, there is a rich undercurrent of rightist dissent that could rise to the surface to enter the mainstream of German politics.

More

 

Photo by opposition24.de

Apr 182015
 

Not yet, but they are working on it.

What’s The Matter with the AfD?

In my research paper on the AfD party’s 2014 EP manifesto, I argue that the AfD will have to face a choice between their current mix of social conservatism/economic liberalism on the one hand and right-wing populism proper on the other. That time is now, and the choice seems to tear apart the party.

Since its inception in early 2013, the AfD has rolled out six campaigns at the federal and state level. It is arguably the most successful new party in Germany since the Greens, but the media coverage of the last three weeks has been nothing but devastating.

afd photo

Photo by blu-news.org

Talking ‘bout a Resolution … or Two

A month ago, the AfD leadership in Thuringia published the “Erfurt Resolution”, which is effectively canvassing for a more rightist profile of the party. The “liberal” wing launched a counter manifesto, the “Germany Resolution”. As of today, “Erfurt” has 1,905 likes on Facebook and more than 1,600 signatories in the real world. “Germany” has 1,403 likes and an undisclosed number of signatories. While these number are low in absolute terms, the AfD has only between 20,000 and 25,000 members, and in most parties, only 10 per cent or less of the membership are actually active, so some 3,000 people taking a stand represent a very significant degree of polarisation.

This polarisation has already split the parliamentary party in Thuringia: One of the AfD MPs (who is still a party member) had the whip removed from him, and two others may still suffer the same fate. In Hesse, the state party has just voted out its leadership while I’m writing this, and might bring back its former leader, who had to resign five months ago because he had kept shtum about his previous membership in the right-wing extremist Republikaner party.

The Colour of Money

In other news, Marcus Pretzell, who is party leader in NRW and one of the AfD’s MEPs, has been investigated by the party’s national exec following financial irregularities. The report recommends that Pretzell should keep his seat in Brussels but resign from the NRW leadership, because he was not able to deal with the demands of his private and political life. Unsurprisingly, Pretzell refused to step down, and threatened to disturb the upcoming election campaign in Bremen.

At the federal level, the party’s HQ is in disarray. The party manager has resigned before he could be sacked, and the treasurer is chasing large sums of money that went missing in 2014.

What next?

The current level of infighting is dramatic, and it is hurting the party. The Greek shenanigans and the current wave of unease about refugees and asylum seekers should help the AfD, but it is hovering at just about five per cent in the opinion polls. That does not bode well for the election in Bremen in May (where the right-wing extremist DVU has done well in the past). But it’s not the end of the road for the AfD yet. New parties tend to quarrel, because they attract all sorts of activist.

The Greens are an interesting point of reference in this respect. They only became a disciplined party when they effectively ejected the leftist wing in the 1990s. The AfD’s national leadership is currently pondering the merits of a referendum by party members on the AfD’s future course. If such a referendum is held and results in a draw, the party might well split, otherwise, an exodus of the losing side and their political marginalisation is the most likely scenario.

Mar 222015
 
Putsch in the AfD?

Strife within the AfD

In my recent West European Politics Article on the AfD (ungated pre-print still here), I argue that the party’s official position (i.e. their EP 2014 manifesto, their website and their social media activities) is soft-eurosceptic and not right-wing populist: For them, the enemy is Athens and the profligacy of the Greeks, not Islam, Turkey, or the Roma. I also argue that this official party line is very much shaped by party co-founder and co-chair Bernd Lucke, and that others disagree, not least because many AfD voters are (or were) not particularly concerned about the Euro and orthodox economics, but very much in favour of restrictions on immigration.

Putsch in the AfD?

The AfD and Bruce Springsteen. You would have to ask @BDStanley what it means.

Like any new party, the AfD is made up of various groups, wings, and tendencies. Christian fundamentalists mingle with economic liberals; disappointed conservative Christian democrats mix with former members of Germany’s extreme right parties (although the AfD tries to enforce a ban on those). A year or so ago, we used to talk about “liberals”, “conservatives”, and a third faction in the middle which tried to build bridges. But now, we’re apparently down to two “wings”: Lucke’s economic liberals (who are also socially conservative), and those who want a tougher, more nationalist party. Incidentally, this split seems to be reinforced by an East-West conflict within the AfD, with the electorally successful Eastern chapters more inclined to play the right-wing populist card.

The AfD Putsch: State of Play

A week ago, the state party in Thuringia drew up the “Erfurter Resolution”, a manifesto that aims to drum up support for a more nationalist orientation of the party. So far, they have collected more than 1,500 signature by party members (the total number is about 21,000), and roughly the same number of “likes” on Facebook. The latter figure seems a bit disappointing, and Facebook’s statistics actually show a rapidly falling rate of new likes. Why the right-wingers chose to call themselves “der Flügel” (the wing, or tendency) when they claim to speak for the centre of the party is anyone’s guess. Once, more, it must have been Amateur Night in Erfurt.

Counterstrike: The “Germany Resolution”

On Wednesday, Arch-Economic Liberal (TM) Hans-Olaf Henkel and three of his MEP colleagues have published another manifesto, the “Deutschland-Resolution” (“Germany Resolution”), which calls for unity, but attacks the Erfurt Manifesto. This is much cleverer framing, as “Germany” embodies unity and refers to the party name. But for all purposes and intents, we are now looking at two wings clustered around two manifestos, with the letter apparently being less popular (just 388 likes so far). They haven’t published anything on the number of signatories yet.

A split in the AfD in Thuringia

But the who could be more relevant than the how many in this case, and the short list Henkel and friends have put online is interesting for two reasons: First, there is a number of second-tier party functionaries from the West, further hinting at a regional split, and second, there are the signatures of three state-level MPs for the AfD from Thuringia, who were expected to sign the Erfurt declaration last week, but did not. That means that the AfD delegation in the Thuringia state parliament is effectively split down the middle.

Commercial Break: And Then, There is Always Marcus Pretzell

pretzell photo

Photo by blu-news.org

In my article, I have singled out Marcus Pretzell, another AfD MEP, as a representative of the more right-wing populist wing. He rose to prominence (well, amongst us spotters) when – against Lucke’s express wishes – he invited Nigel Farage to address the party faithful. Now Pretzell, a lawyer and property developer, is making headlines again, because he owes the tax man a lot of money. Apparently, Pretzell would not answer the increasingly urgent letters, and the Man could not find Pretzell at his address, so the authorities decided to dock some money from the AfD’s account (Pretzell is also state party chair in North Rhine-Westphalia). While the monies have been returned to the AfD, and while this could eventually reduce Pretzell’s role as a troublemaker, it is not exactly great publicity for the party and may, as Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung shrewdly observes, mess up their credit rating for ages.

Stay Tuned

Meanwhile, Bernd Lucke has signed neither declaration, which seems wise. Frauke Petry, currently his co-chair and his most plausible competitor for the future single leadership post, is biding here time, too. I don’t think that this is the beginning of the end for the AfD, but the tensions have become much more visible in recent months, and a split of the party is beginning to look like a distinct possibility. Of course, rifts in the AfD are nothing new, but so far, they were framed as clashes between personalities, or as conflict over the future structure of the party (read: power struggles). The public debate about conflicting manifestos and the ideologies they represent may mark the point at which voters begin to wonder what the party actually stands for.