All the Political Science wisdom on the Trump victory /presidency in one single blog post. Or two, perhaps 

The one and only Philip Schrodt has written what I think is the perfect seven-take-home-messages rant on that election and it’s likely outcomes. Skip all the self-flagellation/yes-but posts and read this instead: [contentcards url=""] Then again, there is one thing that does not get enough coverage in there, and that is the whole polling/prediction disaster.…

In March 2016, Helmut Norpoth predicted a Trump victory

Ballot - Vote

[contentcards url="" target="_blank"] I’m not a huge fan of predictive Social Science. People are not the weather; they are bound to react to our predictions, which may become self-defeating or self-fulfilling in the process. Either scenario is unpleasant for obvious reasons. Predictive models are often subject to herd behaviour. They rarely rely on first principles,…

Namechecked by the Huffington Post

In passing, the Huffington Post mentions my AJPS article on Contextual Effects. Very flattering, though the whole story is a bit more complicated than the Post suggests. [contentcards url=""]