[caption id="attachment_13132" align="alignleft" width="408"] Lord Salisbury on the drawbacks of universal suffrage. Cited in David Marquand, Britain since 1918, p. 54[/caption] MP, Peer, Secretary of State for India, Foreign Secretary, Leader of the Opposition, thrice Prime Minister of Britain, architect of the Empire and arch-Conservative. Robert Gascoyne-Cecil, third Marquess of Salisbury and colloquially known as…
This week, guest-blogging at the LSE’s very useful European Politics and Policy blog: Why I think that the AfD’s likely success in the 2014 European election will give them a foothold in the German system.
By and large, the online “Green Primary” ahead of the Euro 2014 election was a failure. Deutsche Welle has a short feature on this experiment, in which I give my five (Euro) cent. Der Beitrag zur “Primary” ist auch auf Deutsch verfügbar. Photo by DBarefoot
In Germany, people begin to realise that Merkel may have painted herself into a corner by winning so gloriously. While her Christian Democrats are by far the largest party group in the new Bundestag, she needs a coalition partner, but nobody wants to play. Merkel may have painted herself into a corner by winning so gloriously. This could still end in new elections or a minority government
I’ve been pooling the German pre-election polls since early this summer, and have published preliminary findings since August. People keep asking me the same questions, so here is my FAQ on pooling the polls.
You may download the code and most recent replication data for my model that estimates latent party support and brazenly predicts the outcome of the 2013 German election from my dataverse. If you spot a bug or some other problem, please drop me a line.
Many of the activities parties would have done in-house during a campaign in bygone times have now been outsourced to agencies. Today’s leftfield exhibit is from the Pirate party.
The Polls [caption id="attachment_12655" align="alignleft" width="300"] Support for the Major German Parties, Estimates and Predictions (Week 35, 2013)[/caption] Exactly three weeks before the 18th Bundestag election, it’s time for another look at the polls. This weekend brings six new entries: One late result from week 33 that was only published a week ago, three polls…
Last week’s post on Merkel’s very good chances to win a third term created a bit of a stir. This week, I’m back with nine new polls (conducted between August 6 and August 19 by six different companies), which all point into the same direction: The probability of Merkel continuing as chancellor is 98 to 99 per cent.
[caption id="attachment_12583" align="alignright" width="225"] Trying to Rub off the Incumbency Advantage from the Old Guy[/caption] The local MP is stepping down after a mere 19 years, and the local mayor wants his job. The outgoing MP won his seat five times in a row on a plurality of the Erststimmen. Structural factors aside, this looks…