Nov 032016
 

Who will be the next US President?  Some commentators have argued that voter intention polls are flawed because it is difficult to know who will actually turn out to vote. To get around this problem, Andreas Murr , Mary Stegmaier , and Michael S. Lewis-Beck use citizen forecasts, a “who do you think will win” survey question, to predict the election result. 

The method is . . . unusual. Here is the full article: Using citizen forecasts we predict that with 362 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton will be the next president 

BTW, Helmut Norpoth, who has an excellent track record, is (still) 80+% sure that Trump will win

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