Feb 242015
 

Almost a decade ago, I published an article with a cutesy title on the decline of party identification in Germany, of which I am inordinately proud. The main message of this piece was that party identification in Germany has not collapsed, but is rather declining at the glacial rate of 0.7 percentage points per year, give or take. Here is the relevant graph:

Party Identification in West Germany, 1977-2002

For a more recent project, I have extended the time-series to cover the whole 1977-2012 period, right up to the begin of the 2013 federal election campaign. As it turns out, de-alignment in the West has come to a virtual halt during the last decade – see here:

Partisan Dealignment in West Germany

Decline of party identification in West Germany, 1977-2012

If you think that this is still too noisy, have a look at this trajectory, which is derived from a binary logistic model that regresses identifications on time, age, education, and campaign effects. More on this soon – stay tuned.

Estimated overall levels of partisanship in West Germany, 1977-2012 (adjusted predictions at representative values (APR)

Estimated overall levels of partisanship in West Germany, 1977-2012 (adjusted predictions at representative values (APR)

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  6 Responses to “Party Identification in Germany: Not Dead Yet (1)”

  1. […] years’ worth of Politbarometer data show that partisan dealignment in Germany has slowed down considerably over the last decade. One reason for this is the increase in average levels of formal […]

  2. […] week, I showed you that partisan dealignment in the Western federal states of Germany has slowed down considerably, and essentially came to a standstill during the last decade. But what […]

  3. RT @kai_arzheimer: #PartyIdentification in #Germany: down, but not out http://t.co/PeQICJcSwt

  4. RT @kai_arzheimer: #PartyIdentification in #Germany: down, but not out http://t.co/PeQICJcSwt

  5. RT @kai_arzheimer: New Blog: #PartyIdentification in (Western) #Germany: Not Dead Yet (1) – kai arzheimer http://t.co/uUgiJUuw5A

  6. RT @kai_arzheimer: New Blog: #PartyIdentification in (Western) #Germany: Not Dead Yet (1) – kai arzheimer http://t.co/OMpQSR3FMt

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