polls Archives - kai arzheimer

Is the AfD’s surge in the polls real?

June 4, 2023June 2, 2023 by Kai Arzheimer

Is the AfD’s surge in the polls real? Computer say’s ‘yes’.

How good/bad were the 2017 German election polls?

September 25, 2021 by Kai Arzheimer

People mock pollsters whose findings they don’t like. Here is a totally unbiased look at how well eight major companies did in the 2017 elections

Mad Christian Democrats, the AfD’s internal conflicts, useless US polls, and the Wellcome Monitor: four links I liked

June 21, 2019 by Kai Arzheimer

On a very slow news day, two third-tier politicians for the centre-right CDU phantasise over future coalitions with the “moderates/liberals” within the AfD (where would they find them?). Ah yes, they also want to re-unite “the National” and “the Social”, which, by the lego-like greatness of the German language, becomes the “National-Social”. James F. Downes…

Pooling Polish polls, British parties and the EU, white nationalists, and the Radical Right’s gendered policy agendas: four links I liked

July 12, 2023April 19, 2018 by Kai Arzheimer

Once more, Ben Stanley has pooled the poles’ polls (TM). The result? Some movement, but no crisis [site seems to be gone 🙁 ].
Neat: Alexandre Afonso tracks British parties’ positions on European integration from 1999 to 2017 using Chapel Hill data
Feeling paranoid? Here is an article about “white nationalists infiltrating our workplaces as secret agents”. Actually, it’s mostly about a single agent, but still an interesting article.
Almost by definition, my Radical Right Research Robot posts oodles of interesting links (if you are into that stuff), but here is a favourite that I read with my students just a few weeks ago:

the effect of immigration and the #RadicalRight T. Akkerman. “Gender and the Radical Right in Western Europe. A Comparative Analysis of Policy Agendas”. In: Patterns of Prejudice 49.1-2 (2015), pp. 37-60. https://t.co/fhatSkdV48. pic.twitter.com/Ay1mFUMBIe
— Radical Right Research Robot (@RRResRobot) April 5, 2018

State of the German polls: It’s the final, final, final surveys

September 23, 2017 by Kai Arzheimer

So: three more surveys. No kidding Finality finally got a bit more final: just to annoy me (now here is a narcissist), three further surveys were published today (already yesterday in Germany). One of them is only new-ish: Emnid was in the field from September 14-21, so I take their data as a snapshot of…

State of the German polls: It’s the final surveys

September 22, 2017 by Kai Arzheimer

I just suppressed the urge to insert the word ’countdown’ into the headline. See what I’m doing here? We have four more polls by Allensbach and Forsa (published on Tuesday), and by FGW and GMS (published on Thursday), and presumably, these are the last that we are going to see before election day. Do they…

State of the German polls: No news is no news

September 19, 2017 by Kai Arzheimer

German Elections: Three more polls We Anoraks are all getting a little jittery here. It’s 134 hours until closing time and there will be only a small handful of polls coming in in the next couple of days, so is there anything new that may be divined from the latest crop, published today (Insa), on…

State of the German polls: Is the SPD doomed and the AfD headed for third place?

September 15, 2017 by Kai Arzheimer

It’s just a single poll Once more, repeat after me: It’s just a single poll. It’s also the time for horse-race journalism (and for horse-race blogging). In this specific case, the single poll is the most recent instalment of the “Deutschlandtrend”, a survey-series that Infratest-dimap runs for public broadcasting giant ARD. From the results (SPD:…

State of the German polls: Move on, (almost) nothing to see here

September 12, 2017 by Kai Arzheimer

With less than two weeks until the election, we now have 153 surveys from seven different companies to pore over. The bulk of these (104) were produced by Emnid, Forsa and Insa. GMS and Allensbach have delivered only a handful of polls (seven and nine, respectively), while FGW (15) and Dimap (18) occupy the middle…

State of the German polls: The initials of Germany’s next chancellor would seem to be A & M

September 11, 2017September 2, 2017 by Kai Arzheimer

Eight months of polling While I was doing other stuff, elsewhere, the German polling industry has been busy. Over the last eight months, the big seven have published results from 144 surveys with a total of 266,715 respondents. With just three weeks to go until election day (and postal voting well underway, what can they…