Kai Arzheimer » regional elections http://www.kai-arzheimer.com/blog A political science blog Sat, 21 Jan 2012 19:06:37 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Does Immigration help or hurt the Front National in France?http://www.kai-arzheimer.com/blog/does-immigration-help-or-hurt-the-front-national-in-france/ http://www.kai-arzheimer.com/blog/does-immigration-help-or-hurt-the-front-national-in-france/#comments Mon, 29 Sep 2008 18:06:23 +0000 kai http://polsci.wordpress.com/2008/09/29/does-immigration-help-or-hurt-the-front-national-in-france/ In a recent article in the European Journal of Political Research, Kestilä and Söderlund claim (amongst other things) that in the French regional elections of 2004, turnout and district magnitude have significant negative effects o Does Immigration help or hurt the Front National in France?n the extreme right vote whereas the effects of the number of party lists and unemployment are positive and significant. Most interestingly, immigration (which is usually a very good predictor for the radical right vote) had no effect on the success of the Front National. More generally, they argue that a subnational approach can control for a wider range of factors and provide more reliable results than cross-national analyses (now the most common approach to this phenomenon). My colleague Liz Carter and I disagreed and engaged in a massive replication/re-analysis endeavour. The outcome is a critique of the KS model of subnational political opportunity structures in regional elections. In this paper, we dispute Kestilä’s and Söderlund’s claims on theoretical, conceptual and methodological grounds and demonstrate that their findings are spurious. Today, the European Journal has accepted the article for publication (probably in 2009) icon smile Does Immigration help or hurt the Front National in France?

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